October 14, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Icatiro | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zaevion | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Oro de Tejano | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Light of the World | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Native | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Exciting | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Lady McKenzie | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Panterita | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spartanka | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Double Oaked | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Folly | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Free | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Dreamonmebaby | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Feisty Bird | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Can Imagine | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Smart Call | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Winging Ways | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Samson Lee | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gran Rojo | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ahmas | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Sense | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fixico | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Glamour Girl | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ria Munk | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Market Rumor | 1.40 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eres Tu | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Storm At Sea | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sally O’Brien | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Santa Guapa | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Take Charge Ro | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rearrange | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Princesa Blanca | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Palamos (GB) | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Demora | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Queen Louise | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pretty Plum | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | She’s a Deal | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Stripping | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Movie Moxy | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dovima | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ballot Initiative | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Motown Girl | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | April in Paris | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fast Chica | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chewy Chewy Good | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Honorable Memory | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Here Comes Josie | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dawdle | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Innovate | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Morgan | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Atlanta | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Whispering Pines | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Runaway Mom | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Charming Lady | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Call On Mischief | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ceci Valentina | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lexi On the Move | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Purrfectly Claire | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Recoded | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Regal Beauty | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rising Seas | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Steph’sfullasugar | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Continental Clash | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dyess | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Champers | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Oak Room | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | First Citizen | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Monte Ne | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dublin Yinz Money | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Trumpin On | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rocka Barry | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | No Nay Now (IRE) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.