Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 11, 2020

October 11, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shippingport 1.80 1.7 3-1
1 1 Fast Cash 2.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Wyoming Conquest 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Beverly Park 3.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 It’s Summer 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Seminole Warrior 12.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Campioni 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 County Court 2.00 3 6-1
4 4 Majid 1.20 3.3 6-1
3 3 Millwood 5.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Water Patrol 15.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Twinkling Knight 30.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Congrats This 15.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Signalman 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Locally Owned 2.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Haunt 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Fort Peck 4.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Sueno 15.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Generator 4.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Nip N Tuck 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Birthday Party 4.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Beaucette’s Ekati 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Saving Mama 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Beat Duke 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Half Cocked 10.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Afwan 12.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Microcap 3.50 1.6 3-1
9 9 Claro Que Si 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Orencia 4.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Treaty of Paris 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Ship’s Creek 4.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Harbor Sunset 6.00 3 6-1
8 8 Good News 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Prado Amore 20.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 America’s Girl 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Beautiful Trauma 2.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Extra Effort 3.50 2 4-1
7A 6 Luna Fortis 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Smooth With a Kick 2.50 2.9 5-1
2 2 Resurrection Road 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Offspring 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 7 Shacklette 15.00 8 15-1
5A 5 French Empire 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cousin Larry 4.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Divinium 3.50 3.6 7-1
10 10 Holy Redeemer 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Mean Machine 8.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Tap Gold 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 High Press 8.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Nakoda 12.00 6 11-1
1 1 Two Princes 8.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Hpnotiq Rhythm 12.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Beniah 15.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Samurai Saint 15.00 9.1 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Dixieincandyland 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 5 Quebec 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Escapade 4.50 4.2 8-1
9 7 A Bit of Both 4.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Miss Gossip (IRE) 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 6 Tomlin 12.00 6.5 12-1
10 8 Bye Bye Bertie 30.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Summer’s Indy 50.00 9.9 19-1
3 3 Jo Jo Air 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mentality 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Headland 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 A Thousand Reasons 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Sound Money 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Absolute Chaos 5.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Saffa’s Day 5.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Bourbon Thunder 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Ricochet 8.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Hold Tight 10.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Hard Asset 10.00 7 13-1
2 2 All Bodes Well 10.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Pelota 12.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Dr. Duke 12.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 New Dice 12.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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