Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 11, 2020
October 11, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shippingport | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fast Cash | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wyoming Conquest | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beverly Park | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | It’s Summer | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Seminole Warrior | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Campioni | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | County Court | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Majid | 1.20 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Millwood | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Water Patrol | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Twinkling Knight | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Congrats This | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Signalman | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Locally Owned | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Haunt | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fort Peck | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sueno | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Generator | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nip N Tuck | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Birthday Party | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beaucette’s Ekati | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Saving Mama | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beat Duke | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Half Cocked | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Afwan | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Microcap | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Claro Que Si | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Orencia | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Treaty of Paris | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ship’s Creek | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Harbor Sunset | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Good News | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prado Amore | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | America’s Girl | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Beautiful Trauma | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Extra Effort | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Luna Fortis | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smooth With a Kick | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Resurrection Road | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Offspring | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shacklette | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | French Empire | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Cousin Larry | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Divinium | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Holy Redeemer | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mean Machine | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tap Gold | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | High Press | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Nakoda | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Two Princes | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hpnotiq Rhythm | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beniah | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Samurai Saint | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Dixieincandyland | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Quebec | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Escapade | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | A Bit of Both | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tomlin | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Bye Bye Bertie | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Summer’s Indy | 50.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jo Jo Air | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mentality | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Headland | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | A Thousand Reasons | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Sound Money | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Absolute Chaos | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Saffa’s Day | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Thunder | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ricochet | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hold Tight | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hard Asset | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | All Bodes Well | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pelota | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dr. Duke | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | New Dice | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.
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