October 9, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Just Fly | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stolen Beauty | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Abramax | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Frills | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charge It Jenn | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Skamania | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Liz’s Cable Girl | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nomizar | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Keep Your Distance | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Diamondcoat | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shasta Star | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Its a Wrap | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Peruvian Boy | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Trashtalkinyankee | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hersh | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Substantial | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Feature | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Park Ridge Benny | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Victory Element | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Attain Success | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ghostly Who | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nice Work | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maniacal | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Privacy | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mark My Way | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Giddymeister | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Luke Silver | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Twinkling Knight | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Red Blue and True | 50.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | College Party | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Flatoya | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charmed One | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tesorina | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Grimpante | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ashley’s New Shoes | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Holdontoyourtiara | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Twirling Dervish | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Telluride Queen | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Winters Back | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Telephone Talker | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dreams of Tomorrow | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Trade Deadline | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gear Jockey | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ghostlore | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Luxor | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Capt. Maestri | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Carmichael | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Behind the Couch | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Larimar | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Not a Problem | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Letters to Belle | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blonde by Nature | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Barbadolla | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shelley’s Gem | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Gray Magician | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Copper Town | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Looking At Bikinis | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hog Creek Hustle | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Cove Blue | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Strike That | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lasting Legacy | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rubus | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mucho | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Borracho | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | High North | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Visitant | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Buffalo Trace Franklin County S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Got Stormy | 1.20 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Stillwater Cove | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Jakarta | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Winning Envelope | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Into Mystic | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Ambassador Luna | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Surrender Now | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Chalon | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Violent Times | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Change of Control | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bohemian Bourbon | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tomlin | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Lady Rocket | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ocean Breeze | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Palomita | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She Can’t Sing | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | We the Clouds | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Zero to Sixty | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Majestic Blend | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Madame Overserved | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Goulding | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.