October 7, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Obsessed | 1.40 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Twenty Twice | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mulberry Street | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Airstreem | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moonshine Steve | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Awakened | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Marlee | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tonal Vision | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Forevernoa | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Skyvalue | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Better Biz | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flower House | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Templuna | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tide of the Sea | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Current | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bourbon in May | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Celerity | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rijeka (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Phantom Currency | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Logical Myth | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | So High (GB) | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Kid Mercury | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cashanova | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mom Said Yes | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Crazy Sexy Munny | 0.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Grats Road | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Matt’s Honey | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kimberley Dream | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | War Eagle’s Love | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | C Islandsurprise | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | I Dream of Lois | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Spanish Kingdom | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Midnight Jostar | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mud Pie | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mantra | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Singapore Flash | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kentucky Ghost | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hellorhighwater | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Battalion | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Surf and Turf | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Churn N Burn | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bayou Prospector | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | King of Fortune | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Myamanoi | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Perjury Trap | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Alex Joon | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Front Man | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cedar Hall | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | La Femme Royale | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Queen Nekia | 1.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Centerfold Angel | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honey Parade | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Clever Tale | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Aunt Pearl (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ingrassia | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Batyah | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Spanish Loveaffair | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Navratilova | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gambling Cat | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Taylor’s Tourist | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Arm Candy | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Momentous Miss | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beautiful Star | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Lazy Summer Day | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Groovy Lemon Pie | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fugitive | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Long Term Thinking | 1.40 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Epic Adventure | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | American Humor | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Englander | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Carrier Pigeon | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Paint I Ain’t | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vedder | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Catholic Guilt | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Newscaster | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Kickin’ Kirby | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Monkey Zone | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.