Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 7, 2020

October 7, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Obsessed 1.40 1.9 3-1
3 3 Twenty Twice 2.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Mulberry Street 4.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Airstreem 8.00 5 9-1
4 4 Moonshine Steve 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Awakened 5.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Malibu Marlee 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Tonal Vision 2.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Forevernoa 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Skyvalue 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Better Biz 3.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Flower House 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Templuna 15.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tide of the Sea 3.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Current 3.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Bourbon in May 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Celerity 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Rijeka (IRE) 6.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Phantom Currency 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Logical Myth 12.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 So High (GB) 12.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Kid Mercury 15.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Cashanova 20.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Mom Said Yes 30.00 8.2 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Crazy Sexy Munny 0.80 2.2 4-1
7 7 Grats Road 3.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Matt’s Honey 12.00 5 9-1
2 2 Kimberley Dream 6.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 War Eagle’s Love 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 C Islandsurprise 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 I Dream of Lois 6.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Spanish Kingdom 3.00 3.8 7-1
11 10 Midnight Jostar 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Mud Pie 4.50 5.7 11-1
3 3 Mantra 8.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Singapore Flash 6.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Kentucky Ghost 10.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Hellorhighwater 6.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Battalion 12.00 7.8 15-1
13 12 Surf and Turf 10.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 Churn N Burn 10.00 8.5 16-1
12 11 Bayou Prospector 15.00 9.3 18-1
10 10 King of Fortune 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Myamanoi 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Perjury Trap 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Alex Joon 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Front Man 30.00 11.8 22-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cedar Hall 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 La Femme Royale 4.50 4 7-1
1 1 Queen Nekia 1.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Centerfold Angel 10.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Honey Parade 3.50 4.5 9-1
4 4 Jungle Juice (IRE) 15.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Clever Tale 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Aunt Pearl (IRE) 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Ingrassia 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Batyah 6.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Spanish Loveaffair 3.50 4.2 8-1
8 8 Navratilova 10.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Gambling Cat 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Taylor’s Tourist 6.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Arm Candy 15.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Momentous Miss 20.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Beautiful Star 20.00 9 17-1
11 11 Lazy Summer Day 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Groovy Lemon Pie 20.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Fugitive 5.00 4.2 8-1
8 6 Long Term Thinking 1.40 5 10-1
9 7 Epic Adventure 12.00 6.3 12-1
6 4 American Humor 5.00 6.3 12-1
11 9 Englander 10.00 6.4 12-1
7 5 Carrier Pigeon 20.00 6.6 12-1
4 3 Paint I Ain’t 20.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Vedder 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Catholic Guilt 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Newscaster 50.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Kickin’ Kirby 10.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Monkey Zone 30.00 10.2 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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