Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 4, 2020

October 4, 2020 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wasp 3.00 1.5 3-1
7 6 Impazible Donna 1.80 2.5 5-1
3 3 Calidad 4.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Munnings Muse 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Bella Domenica 12.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Misty Taste 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 5 Beautiful Karen 8.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Z’finale 5.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Bielefeld 2.50 3.6 7-1
10 10 Ringgood 3.50 3.6 7-1
7 7 Generalonamission 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Whichwaytomalibu 6.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Nightspot 15.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Noble Mischief 6.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Kingfish 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Open Lengths 2.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mr. Fidget 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Yousaidhello 15.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Supply Sider 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Whats in It for Me 30.00 9.5 18-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Off Topic 2.50 2 4-1
6 6 Overjoyed 2.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Graceful Princess 4.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Foxtail 3.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Indy Union 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Jennemily 8.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Joe’s Smokin Gun 10.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Catch a Cab 2.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Gio d’Oro 4.00 3.2 6-1
10 8 Siding Spring 8.00 3.7 7-1
9 7 Lucky Ramsey 3.00 3.7 7-1
2 1 Another 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Noble Thought 4.50 4.7 9-1
11 11 Flowers for Lisa 1.80 SCRATCH
7 6 Coltandmississippi 15.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Vincero 8.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Honorable Hero 30.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Advance Notice 2.50 1.7 3-1
5A 5 Sneakiness 3.50 1.8 3-1
3A 3 Grit and Glory 3.50 2 4-1
8 8 Saratoga Pal 4.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Tikhvin Flew 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Kumar 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Striking Speed 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Macho Jack 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Fried Rice King 15.00 7 13-1
4 4 Lost in Rome 15.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Data Analytics 5.00 2.3 4-1
9 8 Kilkea 8.00 2.8 5-1
15 15 Lem Me Have It 1.80 SCRATCH
2 2 Princess Pinky 30.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Chocolate Cookie 8.00 4.1 8-1
16 16 Desbordes 10.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Astoria Kitten 4.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 Crescent Lady 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Fresco 3.00 5.4 10-1
11 10 Miss Jen 20.00 6.4 12-1
5 4 Monificent 20.00 6.7 13-1
4 3 Silky Blue 6.00 6.8 13-1
13 13 Cold Hearted Cat 30.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Saratoga Beauty 20.00 7.3 14-1
14 14 Cheatham Hill 3.50 SCRATCH
3 2 Abby Normal 50.00 11.7 22-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Miss Grillo S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Freedomofthepress 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Fifth Risk 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Lovestruck 3.50 SCRATCH
9 5 Editor At Large (IRE) 5.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Batyah 8.00 SCRATCH
4 2 Caldee 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 4 Plum Ali 2.50 3.7 7-1
5 3 Director’s Cut 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 1 Mashnee Girl 50.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Beldame S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dunbar Road 1.00 1.8 3-1
5 4 Horologist 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Nonna Madeline 8.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Point of Honor 3.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Letruska 3.00 2.8 5-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Chateau 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Battle Station 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Holiday Stone 8.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Chewing Gum 3.00 3 6-1
3 3 Backtohisroots 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Fog of War 10.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Archidust 2.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Wet Your Whistle 10.00 4 8-1
9 9 Pulsate 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Big Wonder 50.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Scotty 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Dustgetsinyoureyes 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Tanners Neck Lane 20.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Phantom Smoke 3.50 1.5 3-1
10 8 Dee Bo 6.00 2.3 4-1
15 15 Noble Journey 20.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Iwo Jima 8.00 3.2 6-1
11 11 Speedy Banker 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ruse 20.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Be Yourself 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 6 Danzigwiththestars 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 1 Data Deal 6.00 4.6 9-1
12 9 Cotton 4.50 4.7 9-1
13 10 Boss Bear 12.00 5.8 11-1
9 7 Sandor Clegane 20.00 6.8 13-1
3 2 Declare Justice 30.00 9.3 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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