Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 2, 2020

October 2, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Patriot’s War 4.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Vasariano 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Good Juju 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Eel Point 2.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Civil Servant 2.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Hero of Love 30.00 3.8 7-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Rawan 4.50 2.6 5-1
10 10 Farsighted 3.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Naughty Rendezvous 4.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 Reminiscent 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Platinum Sky 12.00 5 9-1
2 2 Cardioversion 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Silk and Sugar 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Yellow Dress 15.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Mania 2.50 6 11-1
6 6 Aunt Joie 15.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Sara Sea 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Risky Mandate 2.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Clear as Day 10.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Cardamon 4.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 Club Car 3.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Figure It Out 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Blame Debbie 1.40 3 6-1
4 4 Inveterate 10.00 3 6-1
6 6 Urban Fairytale 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Tempers Rising 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Channel Princess 15.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Prairie Wings 3.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Aurelia Garland 6.00 4 8-1
8 8 Neversaynoletsgo 30.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Off We Go 3.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Sun Path 3.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Super Quick 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Risky Reward 3.50 4 8-1
5 5 Zapporita 12.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Just Life 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Joy of Painting 15.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Sentimental Cross 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Peachy Queen 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Solemn Oath 15.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Tete a Tete 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Torsie’s Charm 4.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Puye Timing 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Lady Lilly 4.50 4.3 8-1
5 5 Dash to the Top 12.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Spun d’Etat 4.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 American Grace 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Crowella 20.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Stephanies Jewel 20.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Dream Quist 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Quiet Dignity 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Choate Bridge 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Sursum Corda 5.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Luck Money 2.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Lemon Popper 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Ella Brilla 4.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 I Hear You 3.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 First Course 15.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 9 Midnight Sands 12.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 No Parole 5.00 4.9 9-1
9 7 Lexitonian 4.00 4.9 9-1
4 3 Diamond Oops 3.00 5.3 10-1
11 8 Mo Dont No 30.00 6 11-1
6 5 Echo Town 8.00 6.5 12-1
2 1 Absolutely Aiden 12.00 6.6 12-1
3 2 Whitmore 3.50 6.8 13-1
7 6 Empire of Gold 50.00 8 15-1
1 1 Shashashakemeup 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Copper Town 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Edgemont Road 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Darley Alcibiades S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Travel Column 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Gramercy 4.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 Simply Ravishing 3.00 4 8-1
1 1 Thoughtfully 3.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Crazy Beautiful 2.50 4.5 8-1
5 5 Xtrema 15.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Oliviaofthedesert 12.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Temple City Blvd 0.00 3.6 7-1
12 12 Master of the Ring 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Bryce Canyon 15.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Conquest Rainycity 4.50 6.3 12-1
11 11 Narmer 3.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Shaldag 10.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 City Drifter 20.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Storming Lion 5.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Catipari 20.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Sky Temple 30.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Hoistthemainsail 8.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Royal Prince 3.50 8 15-1
8 8 Mr. Brutus 50.00 9.1 17-1
13 13 Optimus Kat 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Risk Manager 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lavish McTavish 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Rookie Year 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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