Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 27, 2020

September 27, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tuff Bird 4.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Tormenta 2.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Rose of Paris 4.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Free Cause 4.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Funnybet 3.00 5 9-1
6 6 Tale of Mona 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Hero of Love 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Paintsville 10.00 2 4-1
1 1 Cibolian 10.00 2 4-1
5 5 Mr Matuschek 1.40 2.4 5-1
2 2 Summer Palace 1.20 3.1 6-1
3 3 Callmecash 20.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Criminal Defense 4.50 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Major Fed 1.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Stilts 12.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Luna’s in Charge 10.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Coastal Defense 1.60 3.8 7-1
2 2 One Nation 4.50 4 7-1
6 6 Lookin High 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ultimate 2.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Five Dreams 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Twilight Blue 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Floriform 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Skip Intro 10.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Bold Delivery 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Copa 3.50 5.1 10-1
4 4 Sidetown 12.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Lighthawk 1.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Quicksilver 4.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Original Intent 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Rock Me 15.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Warrior’s Dream 12.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Pete Marwick 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Mark My Way 8.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 County Court 6.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Good With Numbers 2.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Princess Lea 2.50 2.4 5-1
8 8 Altered Shot 12.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Liam’s Lass 12.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Dramatizer 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Lady Traveler 2.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Euphoric 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Thundering Creed 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ginny B 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Singsong Bird 5.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Flashy Biz 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Lady O’Prado 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Silly Notion 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Irish Willow 3.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Gold Included 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 B Sky High 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Absolute Chaos 4.50 1.1 2-1
11 11 Spicy Marg 2.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Foliage 2.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Roman Pharoah 10.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Lookin for Loki 15.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Whiskey Plank 12.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Stud Puppy 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Seattle See Ya 50.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Loyal Louie 15.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Cees Get Degrees 15.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Lock Up 15.00 7.1 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Digital 2.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Bango 5.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Mailman Money 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Wild Wes 8.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Night Time 2.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Lykan 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 High Proof 10.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Hendrick 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Clearly Mad 4.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Nip N Tuck 6.00 2 4-1
4 4 Roll Tyler 6.00 2.1 4-1
9 8 Bold Minister 8.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Pilot Prince 8.00 5.1 10-1
8 7 Load Up Moe 15.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Appraisal 12.00 6.8 13-1
10 9 Me We 20.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Southern Passage 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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