September 27, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tuff Bird | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tormenta | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rose of Paris | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Free Cause | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Funnybet | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tale of Mona | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hero of Love | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Paintsville | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cibolian | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Matuschek | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Palace | 1.20 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Callmecash | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Criminal Defense | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Major Fed | 1.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stilts | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Luna’s in Charge | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coastal Defense | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | One Nation | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lookin High | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ultimate | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Five Dreams | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Twilight Blue | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Floriform | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Skip Intro | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bold Delivery | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Copa | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sidetown | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lighthawk | 1.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Quicksilver | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Original Intent | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rock Me | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Warrior’s Dream | 12.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pete Marwick | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mark My Way | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | County Court | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Good With Numbers | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Princess Lea | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Altered Shot | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Liam’s Lass | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dramatizer | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Traveler | 2.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Euphoric | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Thundering Creed | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ginny B | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Singsong Bird | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flashy Biz | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady O’Prado | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Silly Notion | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Irish Willow | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gold Included | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | B Sky High | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Absolute Chaos | 4.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Spicy Marg | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Foliage | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Roman Pharoah | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lookin for Loki | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Whiskey Plank | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stud Puppy | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seattle See Ya | 50.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Loyal Louie | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Cees Get Degrees | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lock Up | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Digital | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bango | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mailman Money | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wild Wes | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Night Time | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lykan | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | High Proof | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Hendrick | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Clearly Mad | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nip N Tuck | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Roll Tyler | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bold Minister | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pilot Prince | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Load Up Moe | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Appraisal | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Me We | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Southern Passage | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.