September 26, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bold Article | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Springfield Dusty | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Paynt | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Whatserface | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | War Ensign | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin At Sweetie | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Spartanka | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | French Rose | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | French Empire | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Domonette | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Folly | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Charge It Jenn | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Frills | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Futile | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bye Bye Birdstone | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mine My Time | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strolling | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Icatiro | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Undercover Lover | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Bahama Channel | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz McNamara | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just Like Richie | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Critic | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magic Michael | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Fire Marshall Bill | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Icecap | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cantrell Hill | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gangly | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Firehorn | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baozun | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vivid Verse | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Town Drunk | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Baquero Flies | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Half Trick | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Soul Beam | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Feeling It | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Atmos | 5.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Deano | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lake Nimrod | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moliere | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fastly | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Totally Jimbo | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Poterya | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Guided Missile | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pledgeofallegiance | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Full Authority | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Turnagain Tide | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Sound | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Idol | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Too Hot | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Emperador | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Beachcombing | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Deo Volente | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Asset | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fifty Grand | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | Gold Standard | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | New Roo | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Talk Veuve to Me | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Goodbye Earl | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Joy Epifora (ARG) | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sanenus (CHI) | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Chocolate Kisses | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Take Charge Angel | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Harmless | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Estilo Femenino | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Ack Ack S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Mr. Money | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pioneer Spirit | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | American Anthem | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Calling | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Home Base | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bankit | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ebben | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Warrior’s Charge | 1.80 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Thirstforlife | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dinar | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Everfast | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Alkhaatam | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Proverb | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | War Like Goddess | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Leah Chase | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zawadi | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Go Tweet | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fashion Mo | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Longpants Required | 2.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Demora | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sail On Ellen | 3.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiz Penney | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tanzerin (GER) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.