September 20, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hashtag Winner | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flower House | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Skyvalue | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beauty Day | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sense You Left | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shelley’s Gem | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Kimora | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seize It | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Alpha Storm | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Goody Two Sioux | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Moonshine Dancing | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Liberty Belle | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spy a Star | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Crazy Sexy Munny | 1.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Molly’s Game | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Cleopatra | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kimberley Dream | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | C Islandsurprise | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Katie the Cutie | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Color of Dawn | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Decade | 1.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Flag of Honor | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Profit’s Cause | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silk and Sugar | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Ginger | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Adhhar | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wyoming Conquest | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Money Cometh | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prioritizer | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strike | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Harper | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | S Man | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Thrown for a Loupe | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Johny’s Fireball | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ethical Judgement | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Banderas | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Louisville Legend | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | No Obligation | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Command Central | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Responded | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Peterkin | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Storming Lion | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lavish McTavish | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Roll Tyler | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Last Samurai | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Golden Tiger | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | K W Captain Flint | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Continuum | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mads | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ugo | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Trail | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rivers of Lite | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Raphael | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Notion | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Urbanite | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pickford | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Social Afleet | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rayo de Luz | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Majors Vindication | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Martial Eagle | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Daddy’s On Strike | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rock On Kitten | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Oak Hill | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bullseye Bun | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Icon | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | In Love (BRZ) | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Untraceable | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Botswana Taps | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Falkirk | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oro de Tejano | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Attorney Tim | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Ransack | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Treaty of Paris | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Orencia | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pretty Plum | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Charmed One | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hopecandiesgood | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Creative Legacy | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Destiny | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Now Playing | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shesalittle Edgy | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.