September 18, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tuff Bird | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spanish Peaks | 0.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wises Landing | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tetrahydro | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Soul Alibi | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seven Seventeen | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sworn Silence | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stellar Stiletto | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Flash | 1.40 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | J D’s Girl | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Princess Trina | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dichotomy | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | More Is More | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Ambitiously Placed | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Winze | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Eida’s Storm | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Katie’s Karat | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Lucy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | West Side Girl | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Could You | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gold Button | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | West Bank Baby | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Behind the Couch | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mis Elain E Us | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Destiny’s Darling | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Adjudicator | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ten Flat | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Highestdistinction | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nineeleventurbo | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Graves Mill Road | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vedder | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Make’n Tracks | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lake Nimrod | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Frost Or Frippery | 1.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | House Limit | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Charlie’sarchangel | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smirk | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Darren’s Fortune | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tres Equis | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Popular Kid | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Knight’s Cross | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Inspector Frost | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stayin’ Out Late | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Go West | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flags Up | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Coastal Waters | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cousin Larry | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Saqeel | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Town Agenda | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Do Right | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Unapologetic Me | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sun Summers | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Listen Up | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Graysonsmacho Gal | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hat Tip | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jen Take Charge | 2.50 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Channel Princess | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lele | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Communicator | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Don Bourbon | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mister Candy Ride | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Samaronti | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | What a Country | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stock Deal | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Glory Road | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Admire | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Generator | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Birthday Party | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Crump | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Money Miles | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mazzini | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hidden Stash | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tap Gold | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Starrininmydreams | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Speitful Sam | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hope and Dignity | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.