Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 18, 2020

September 18, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tuff Bird 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Spanish Peaks 0.80 2.7 5-1
4 4 Wises Landing 10.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Tetrahydro 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Soul Alibi 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Seven Seventeen 8.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sworn Silence 5.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Stellar Stiletto 6.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Mo Flash 1.40 2.9 5-1
2 2 J D’s Girl 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Princess Trina 3.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Dichotomy 6.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 More Is More 2.50 1.9 4-1
7 5 Ambitiously Placed 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Winze 6.00 5 9-1
6 4 Eida’s Storm 15.00 5 9-1
1 1 Katie’s Karat 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Super Lucy 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 West Side Girl 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Could You 2.00 1.3 2-1
6 5 Gold Button 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 West Bank Baby 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Behind the Couch 3.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Mis Elain E Us 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Destiny’s Darling 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Adjudicator 3.00 1.3 3-1
3 3 Ten Flat 2.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Highestdistinction 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Nineeleventurbo 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Graves Mill Road 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Vedder 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Make’n Tracks 10.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Lake Nimrod 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Frost Or Frippery 1.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 House Limit 10.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Charlie’sarchangel 3.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Smirk 12.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Darren’s Fortune 12.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Tres Equis 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Popular Kid 3.50 5.3 10-1
6 6 Knight’s Cross 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Inspector Frost 2.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Stayin’ Out Late 3.00 1.9 4-1
8 7 Go West 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Flags Up 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 8 Coastal Waters 15.00 4.9 9-1
4 3 Cousin Larry 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Saqeel 12.00 6.6 12-1
6 5 Town Agenda 12.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Do Right 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Unapologetic Me 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 6 Sun Summers 1.60 1.7 3-1
2 2 Listen Up 12.00 2.1 4-1
5 4 Graysonsmacho Gal 12.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Hat Tip 8.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Jen Take Charge 2.50 5 10-1
6 5 Channel Princess 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Lele 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Communicator 2.00 1.4 3-1
3 2 Don Bourbon 5.00 1.6 3-1
2 1 Mister Candy Ride 6.00 1.9 4-1
8 7 Samaronti 8.00 2.5 5-1
6 5 What a Country 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 3 Stock Deal 20.00 5.6 11-1
5 4 Glory Road 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Admire 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Generator 4.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Birthday Party 4.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Crump 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Money Miles 4.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Mazzini 15.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Hidden Stash 3.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Tap Gold 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Starrininmydreams 10.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Speitful Sam 15.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Hope and Dignity 12.00 7.2 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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