Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 18, 2020

September 18, 2020 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Zainalarab 1.60 1.4 3-1
2 2 Exact 2.00 2 4-1
3 3 Jade Empress 3.00 2 4-1
6 6 White Frost 10.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Treasure Lane 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Boss Cara 20.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Me and Mr. C 3.50 2.9 6-1
1 1 Gravitas 2.00 3.1 6-1
9 7 Zipalong 4.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Doubly Blessed 4.00 4 8-1
8 6 Make a Stand 5.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Pepper Pike 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 5 The Dr’s Slippers 15.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Fevola 1.60 SCRATCH
6 6 Fried Rice King 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 7 Ruvies in Time 1.60 1.5 3-1
4 4 Hetty G. 2.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Cape Cod Diva 1.60 3.6 7-1
6 6 Gentle Annie 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Miss Liana 4.50 5 10-1
7 8 Appletini 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Tiz a Kitten 15.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Lookbothways 12.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Miner’s Mark S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rocketry 1.20 1.9 4-1
1 1 You’re to Blame 1.40 2.1 4-1
2 2 Counter Offer 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Danny California 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Petit Fils (FR) 4.50 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Cross Keys 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Belleza 2.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Madam Deputy 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Lottie’s Mizzion 6.00 4.1 8-1
1A 2 Mebs Web 4.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Bankers Beast 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Imprsstheprofessor 6.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Aggravation 15.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Empress Luciana 15.00 9.5 18-1
1 1 Flattering Eyes 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Honorable 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Space Launch 4.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Scarlett Sky 1.60 4 8-1
4 4 McLovin 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Lowcountry 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Bunker Hill 5.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Crew Dragon 10.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Ascending Moon 15.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Red Mule 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Threepointninenine 4.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Daring Disguise 6.00 4.6 9-1
12 9 Our Troubadour 5.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Implied Volatility 12.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Big Wonder 3.00 5.9 11-1
6 5 Quintarelli 30.00 8.3 16-1
10 8 Knight Frost 50.00 9.3 17-1
5 5 David’s Gem 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Kilronan 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Bernin’ Thru Gold 0.80 SCRATCH
4 4 River Knight 30.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Good Credence 3.50 2 4-1
6 5 Fierce Lady 3.00 2.1 4-1
7 6 Prairie Fire 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 3 Jewel of Arabia 2.50 2.8 5-1
5 4 Baby Boss 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 1 Bustin Scones 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Letmetakethiscall 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Eye of a Soldier 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Mary’s France (FR) 3.50 2.6 5-1
8 7 Lashara (GB) 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 Windfall Profit 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Fetching 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Una Luna 6.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Kelleycanrun 8.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Solitary Gem 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Selfmade 5.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Nero’s Fiddle 6.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Bricco 2.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Bielefeld 10.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Justintimeforwine 6.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 K. K. Ichikawa 12.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Sidd Finch 10.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Noble Mischief 10.00 7.2 14-1
13 13 Kingfish 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Mr. Fidget 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 True Palace 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Open Lengths 1.80 SCRATCH
2 2 Supply Sider 15.00 10.1 19-1
4 4 Broadway Joe 30.00 12.1 23-1
6 6 Unbridled John 30.00 12.6 24-1
5 5 Unlikely 30.00 13 24-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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