September 18, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Nuclear Option | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Runforthemunnings | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dugout | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Boa Nova (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hide the Demon | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Commish | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dazzling Truths | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Never Have I Ever (IRE) | 1.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | North Elkhorn | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Easter Music | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Long Station | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | You’re Killin Me | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gorgeous George | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Welovecandy | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dancin Nicky | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Riv | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | I’m Corfu | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shakes Creek | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Impressed | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | President Elect | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tough Stuff | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Can’t Hide From Me | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | One Way Home | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mexico Memories | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Munn Passage | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Keep Attacking | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | High On Sugar | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | River Evangelist | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gold Hawk | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Giacallure | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | McHenry | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | The Sheik of Araby | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Croce d’Oro | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kaliningrad | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wild About You | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Tan | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Milburn | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Last Spring | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tornado Boy | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Enhanced Edition | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Love That Warrior | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coup de Ville | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crankshaft | 15.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Clear to Close | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ugo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Moonshine Dreamer | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Burning Ambition | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Javanica | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Mary of Bethany | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blameitonthemusic | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Let’s Skedaddle | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Mission | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jolina | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ride Like a Girl | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mizzen Ash | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Business Lady | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Orsetto | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Miracle Mountain | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Behind Enemy Lines | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Call the Colonel | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Standfortheanthem | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Christian C | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Toccetive Jac | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Saturdays Hangover | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Timingiseverything | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charlie Irish | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Forgot to Forget | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pistol Box | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Fort Dixie | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Davka | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Joey B | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pharaoh’s Kitten | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Agave Kid | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Huey Attack | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Classofsixtyseven | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Off to the Beach | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Fast One | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Foggy Albion | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | High Spirits | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Thai One On | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Skeeterskeets | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Captain Carnegie | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Midnight Lewis | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Silver Hit | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bee Happy Attack | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.