September 10, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Liberal Lunacy | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Canary Islands | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oncewewerebrothers | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Here Comes Kyle | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Arba | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dark Ninja | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Palace Duchess | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Raggedy Doll Peach | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | War Colors | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Grace | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Nurse Sadie | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Creal Dreamer | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zappi | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lill Queen B | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gold Hawk | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | O’Malley’s March | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Landofthepharaohs | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Money Machine | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cadet Captain | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fort Dixie | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fort Ridge | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Half of Manhattan | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Summer Castle | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Teletap | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Little Baltar | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Fort Commander | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Four Left Feet | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | No Cents Left | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Speared | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Zanforce | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jeggyjeggy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Landing Gear | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mora Valley | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Get None | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Almafuerte | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tinderella | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kenai Cool | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Edisto Island | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elizabeth’s Fever | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hal’s Mischief | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fort Marsh | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | American Biz | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lethal Leanne | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kiana’s Love | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Can She Scoot | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bit Money | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | D J Soul Sista | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Valiant Lady | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | First Hoosier | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Constancia | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rachelgotstephen | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Kipper Doodle | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Good Bye Greg | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Royal Commish | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Pablo Del Monte | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wild Wes | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | One Tough Charlie | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Suspect | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Heritage | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Never Have I Ever (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Star of Kodiak | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Air Force Jet (GB) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Full of Run | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Candy Store | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Moon Over Montana | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Silver Quarters | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dack Janiel’s | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rip It Ryan | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Baroque | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High Heater | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Can’t Hide From Me | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Exprompt (FR) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.