September 6, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Bellamore | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fouette | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jordan’s Leo | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thisladyis the Law | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jamsstar | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Curl | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tabor Hall | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Caramel Swirl | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Currency | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Cardiac Kitten | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bad Beat Brian | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gins and Tins | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tenure | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Bang No Boom (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Manoffire | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ziller | 50.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wild William | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fevola | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | First Rate | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cold Hard Cash | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blood Moon | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic West | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Striking Speed | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Brice | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Price Talk | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8A | 6 | Conglomerate | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Winters Back | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Ethos | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Amano | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Holy Emperor | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Ceant | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dreams of Tomorrow | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Complex System | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Obsessed | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mo Dean | 1.20 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lutescoot N Boogie | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Leia Marie | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Berning Question | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jane Grey | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sheshappy | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Family Time | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Feeling Pretty | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blue Times | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Keota | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Brass Ring | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bean Counter | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Little Faith | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | So Gracious | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Smack | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sweet Kisses | 10.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bourbon ‘n Ditch | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Mischief | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Excess Capacity | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Vevey | 50.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Chocolate Cookie | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Madison Parc | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dancing Kiki | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Calidad | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Sneak | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sainte Mere Eglise | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Portofina | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saigon | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Noblesque | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Theodora Grace | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lucky Girl | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Arrietty | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Thomas Shelby | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz He the One | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Last Judgment | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | American Power | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lusitano | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Creative Style | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Pro | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Releasethethunder | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mad Munnys | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Coltandmississippi | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Spinaway S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lady Lilly | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beautiful Memories | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Guana Cay | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Esplanande | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vequist | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Constitution | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Honorable Miss H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Come Dancing | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blamed | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady’s Island | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pink Sands | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pacific Gale | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unholy Alliance | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bye Bye J | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Lucky Coin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Gidu (IRE) | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pulsate | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shekky Shebaz | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Readyforprimetime | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Fig Jelly | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Battle Station | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Pagliacci | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fixed Point | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Lenstar | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tatterazzi | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Positive Skew | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Leeway | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stormy Derby Day | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Super Cute | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fun Finder | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Wicked Amber | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stuy Town Baby | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Magnetique | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Blitchton Lady | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Minit Maus | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Sterling Beauty | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Apollo’s Abraxas | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Dipping In | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | La Negrita | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Wild North | 30.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.