September 5, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tackle | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kaz’s Beach | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ancient Times | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Neuro | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bernardino | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Noble Mischief | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Make Motime | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Key to Victory | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Deep Sea | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Win With Pride | 1.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6B | 6 | Vicar’s Legend | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8B | 7 | Brush Country | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wushu Warrior | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vincero | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vineyard Sound | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Wegotoldyougotsold | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Magnolia’s Lady | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Saratoga Love | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fractorzation | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Graetz | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Silky Blue | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Winifred J | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Thea’s Theme | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Canarsie Angel | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Mz Seb Pat | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gringotts | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Appletini | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Glens Falls S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | My Sister Nat (FR) | 0.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eliade (FR) | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beau Belle | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lovely Lucky | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Civil Union | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Complicit | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pallas Athene | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Caddo River | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Munqad | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Olympiad | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Directional | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Greatest Honour | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Officiating | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Regular Guy | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rye Runner | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Southern Passage | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pop a Choc | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Carrizo | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Say Moi | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Timely Tradition | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Don’t Call Me Mary | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Union Maiden | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Forever Changed | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Maryanorginger | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sifting Sands (GB) | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hidden Enemy (IRE) | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lease | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Restored Order | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo Heat | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hardison | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fulco | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | World Cruiser | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | American Diamond | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | River Redemption | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Demon | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Tiwanaku | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Microsecond | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Klickitat | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Barleewon | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Point Him Out | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Simply | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good Old Boy | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Sinner Is You | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Jack the Cat | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jimmy Jazz | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | New Jersey John | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Kerry Boy | 50.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Market Bubble | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Stanhope | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Jim Dandy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Dr Post | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mystic Guide | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jesus’ Team | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Liveyourbeastlife | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | First Line | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Celtic Striker | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Happy Saver | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Prioress S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Center Aisle | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Frank’s Rockette | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Up in Smoke | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hello Beautiful | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sound Machine | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Secondary Market | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Reagan’s Edge | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Purrfectly Claire | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kimari | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Woodward H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Spinoff | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tacitus | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Global Campaign | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Math Wizard | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Prioritize | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Moretti | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Life On Top | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Country | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Doubly Blessed | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Shootin the Breeze | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kid Chocolate | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Operative | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Traffic Pattern | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Beachside | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Implied Volatility | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Starship Bubba | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tolaga Bay | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | No Lime | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Coragescontender | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Joy City | 30.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.