September 5, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Orcus | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Alpha Boy | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rich E Z | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Ramsey | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pistol Box | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Switheral | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Angel Alessandra | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Juju’s Specialgirl | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Honey Mug | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Willow Moon | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winning Quality | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sister Ruler | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Chrome Attack | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Talking Zip | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Andreas | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Love Your Buttons | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maligator | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tetsu | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Diamond Dave | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Joker | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Teletap | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Tan | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Best You Ever Seen | 1.20 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Messed Up | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Turfmeister | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Greenspan | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ihadadream | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The First Hero | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Beach Bar | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Forevernoa | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Goingtoagogo | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Peek a Boo I See U | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Brilliant Patina | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hot Pepper Suzie | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bird Key | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kuora (PER) | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Quick Witted | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Oh So Terrible | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Russian Mafia | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Agi’s Cait | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Carissa Crismas | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cowgirl Kimmie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Grey Mask | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Campioni | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Willow Ridge | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Club Soda | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Knockyourblockoff | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Easter Music | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dancin Nicky | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Greeleys Ice | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | J Z’s Last Try | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pharaoh’s Kitten | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Recklessness | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dom Caetano (ARG) | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Huey Attack | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | High Spirits | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Classofsixtyseven | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | A Sheen Cat | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Off to the Beach | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Trumpet | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Thai One On | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Givin Up None | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bee Happy Attack | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lastfortinofamily | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bobbie too Too | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Irish Lighted Road | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Driver Dan | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beracuda Heart | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Silver Hit | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rocket Ride | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nit Pick | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | To the Bank | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.