September 3, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 6 | Lost in Rome | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6A | 4 | Lokoya Road | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Magic Mojo | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | This Ill Defend | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Feeling Dangerous | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stonecastle | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Glynn County | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Holy Emperor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Compliant | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Ceant | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Advance Notice | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Long Term Thinking | 1.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cause I Said So | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dreamonmebaby | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Betts | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brees Bayou | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My First Grammy | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Verify | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mucho Sunshine | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – P. G. Johnson S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | Union Gables | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Con Lima | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Simply Ravishing | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Thursday | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Invincible Gal (GB) | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Plum Ali | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Mischievous Dream | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Blunt Force | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cover Photo | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | I’ll Take the Cake | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fair Lassie | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cotton Candy Cutie | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Zecha | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dirty Bird | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stay Fond | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 5 | Big Time Lady | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Sweeter | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Mendham | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Constitutionalrage | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cara’s Dreamer | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Mashnee Girl | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Holy Breeze | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Stella Mars | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Herald Angel | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Classic Colors | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Delaware Destiny | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | Niiji | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Hot Dame | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Officer Hutchy | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Q | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spin a Yarn | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nicky Scissors | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Important One | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mani Pedi | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Holmdel Park | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Lem Me Have It | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 12A | 5 | Team Win | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Wedontbelieveher | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sky Kitten | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Ruvies in Time | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Stefanie On Fleek | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Kitten by the Sea | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Sun Summers | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tiltingatwindmills | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Five Alarm Robin | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Seeking Revenge | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Music of Life | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tiz a Kitten | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 4 | Ok Honey | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Palace Avenger | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fair Regis | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kept True | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jc’s Shooting Star | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Spanish Point | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Slimey | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bertranda | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Miss Lily B | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Foxtail | 0.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Niko’s Dream | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tass | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pallas Athene | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Traipsing | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lovely Lucky | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Miss Teheran (IRE) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Orglandes (FR) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ms Boombastic | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Yes to Mischief | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | My Sweet Wife | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Harlem Heights | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Halo City | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Anything Goes | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Light Racer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Arch of Fire | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Apurate | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Counterparty Risk (IRE) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.