September 3, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Matt’s Honey | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Blue | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carina | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Be a Lady | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Grats Road | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | C Islandsurprise | 3.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | I Dream of Lois | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cabo Dorado | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Could You | 1.40 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tipazar | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Crafty Lady | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Not a Needy Gal | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kisses for Heidi | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Holdontoyourtiara | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tale of Mona | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Exemplar | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Matrooh | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Original Intent | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Star Dog | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Martial Eagle | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Chop Chop Charlie | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mark My Way | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | County Court | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Quicksilver | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Icecap | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Runnin’ Ray | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Forloveofcountry | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oro de Tejano | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lemniscate | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Riverboat Gambler | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rayo de Luz | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Atmos | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 4 | Final Cut | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 2 | Angel of Mischief | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cash Out | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 3 | Lady Stella | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Crystal Lake | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Tizahra | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Kuora (PER) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Tweety Show | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lady Oxbow | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Summer in Saratoga | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Extra Effort | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Jeweled Princess | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Adhhar | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | El Supremo | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Oxide | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Jack’s Advantage | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Alphalfa | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Sea of Hope | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Eight Ain’t Enough | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mine Own Star | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Incorrigible | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Zapper Van Winkle | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mystical Man | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Windcracker | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cool Rags | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Last Samurai | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | King Fury | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Palazzi | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Redoux | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1A | 12 | Mahomes Money | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Now a Jaguar | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ertugrul | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Ram | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Phraseologism | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Opening Verse Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Renaisance Frolic | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Captivating Moon | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Crafty Daddy | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Cullum Road | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Misunderstood | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Made You Look | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Big Agenda | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fielder | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Mantra | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Set Piece (GB) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sagaponack | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Parkland | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Explorer | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Complexifier | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Straight Shot | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Line Judge | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Candy Cornell | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ragtime Blues | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Tough Love | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1A | 11 | Rubus | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Madison’s Luna | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Little Kansas | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smart Time | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Pocahontas S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Inject | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | American Grace | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Blissful Change | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fabricate | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Mania | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Alexandria | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Crazy Beautiful | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Xtrema | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Girl Daddy | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scat’s Choice | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Dream Quist | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Ava’s Grace | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 6 | Eel Point | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | The Angry Man | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Capt. Maestri | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Iadanza | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Suspiros | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Poppy’s Prize | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Storm Risen | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Ahnaf | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Three Amigos (FR) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Arion Magic (FR) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Briefcase Bully | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Criminal Defense | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Speightstown Again | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.