August 29, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Queendom | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Happy Sophia | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | La Negrita | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Enough Love | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Summer Fantasy | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Grey Jazmine | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bull Feathers | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | She’s a Lumberjane | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | I Love Jaxson | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Expert | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Dynamax Prime | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | En Wye Cee | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 3 | Empty Tomb | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Greyes Creek | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Dream Friend | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bird’s Eye View | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ballagh Rocks | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | King Cause | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Spirit Animal | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Saranac S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | L’Imperator (FR) | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vanzzy | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Bodecream | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Don Juan Kitten | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Three Technique | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Embolden | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Irish Mias | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bye Bye Melvin | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Dreaming | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ima Pharoah | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Turn of Events | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | Tied Up | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Radiantrithym | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stay Fond | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bustin to Please | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cheatham Hill | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Whyisshesoolucky | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Annie Rocks | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Letmetakethiscall | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Archumybaby | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Roxy Girl | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Love and Love | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Viradia | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Puffery | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Prairie Fire | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Happymac | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Newbomb | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Highly Motivated | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Founder | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Charleston Strong | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Street | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jimmy the Kid | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nerves of Steel | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stretch the Truth | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Regular Guy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Amsterdam S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Long Weekend | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Basin | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yaupon | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Premier Star | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Liam’s Pride | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wondrwherecraigis | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Forego S. Presented By America’s Best Racing
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Complexity | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Funny Guy | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whitmore | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mind Control | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lexitonian | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Firenze Fire | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Fortin Hill | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Win Win Win | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | True Timber | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Majestic Dunhill | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Everfast | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Sword Dancer S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Cross Border | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Corelli | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Aquaphobia | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sadler’s Joy | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Channel Maker | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pedro Cara (FR) | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Marzo | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Highland Sky | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Jouster | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | O’Gotten Girl | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Spun d’Etat | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Peachy Queen | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Rookery | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Len Lo Lady | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Capstone Girl | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Always Carina | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Zainalarab | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Midnight Surprise | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Firenze Freedom | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Eloquent Speaker | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Flashpackinbarbie | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bustin Scones | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Paved With Gold | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Stretchthestory | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kinky Sox | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fight On Lucy | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Jimmy | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pot of Hunny | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ruvies in Time | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.