August 22, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Foliage | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ampersand | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Honorable | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Congrats for Glory | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Explain | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | After Five | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Takeaway | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | My Sea Cottage (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Macho Jack | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beach Front | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kilmarknock | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Airtouch | 0.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oh My Papa | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Our American Star | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fast Getaway | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Cryogenic | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | American Mandate | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Jake Rocks | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Montauk Daddy | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tikhvin Flew | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Blindwillie McTell | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | French Reef (IRE) | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Super Dude | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Heavy Roller | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Majid | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hammerin Aamer | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Chief Know It All | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thebigfundamental | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 6 | Mo Mischief | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Likeable | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Nautilus | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Whatmakessammyrun | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Excursion | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lease | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Sifting Sands (GB) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Take Profit | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Snow’s Island | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Winfromwithin | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | American Diamond | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 7 | Repo Rocks | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 2A | 1 | Thorn | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Oak Creek Canyon | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Central Exit | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shenandoah River | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Love Me Tomorrow | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vinita | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Happy Hill Lil | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flattering Eyes | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smokin Hot Kiss | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Kingmeister | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Chase Tracker | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Plot the Dots | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Arithmetic | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Turn of Events | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Cucina | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Assiduously (GB) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lonesome Fugitive (IRE) | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Alley Oop Johnny | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10A | 10 | Doubly Blessed | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Legit | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Blewitt | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sea Foam | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Growth Engine | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Winston’s Chance | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Noble Thought | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Its All Relevant | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Fourstardave H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Without Parole (GB) | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Raging Bull (FR) | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Halladay | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Uni (GB) | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Got Stormy | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Valid Point | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Emmaus (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Casa Creed | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Chewing Gum | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Letterman | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Battalion | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Revenio | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catorat | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kid Chocolate | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Scotty Brown | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kilronan | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hold My Call | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rakeez | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Starship Bubba | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.