August 21, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Nuclear Option | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tohui | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Dugout | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Direct Deceit | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lykan | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mojo Man | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Southsider | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Homer | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Haunted Mesa | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Valid Storm | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Speared | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Charlie Irish | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Standfortheanthem | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Road Game | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | House of Cortez | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Slick as a Pin | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sertoman | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Syrup | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Alpha Boy | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hide the Evidence | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Charles T | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Overpraise | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Best You Ever Seen | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Greenspan | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Love That Warrior | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Coup de Ville | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kalydar | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tornado Boy | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Helen Mae’s Song | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Get None | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dusty Miller | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lion Love | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Probably Grace | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Adios Hillary | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thirsty Cowgirl | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Superstar Diva | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Annie Time Girl | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | No Time to Play | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | No Boundaries | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Contraction | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Roar of the Lion | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Al Taweel | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Forgot to Forget | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dancin Nicky | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Joker | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Icy Street | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Maligator | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Leona Vander (GB) | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hippie Cowgirl | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Royal Mission | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Quick Kitten | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blonde On Tap | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sunshine Line | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Joan’s Way | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Youawakemysoul | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flash Town | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ruby Round Here | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | She’s a Big Star | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Docs Seven | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | My Morning Gal | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Caroline’s Story | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sing Me Home (GB) | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sloaner | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pythoness | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lovers Quarrel | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Positive Danger | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Aimara | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | English | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Light in the Dark | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Better Angels | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.