August 16, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | School of Thought | 1.40 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cantata | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nevisian Sunrise | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stone Town | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Our Flash Drive | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Family Time | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7B | 6 | Forward Curve | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5B | 4 | Complex System | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seize the Hay | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Chocolate Bar | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Bold Gem | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Feeling Dangerous | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Tiz Envy | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | No Bad Days | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Kith | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sea City | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Southerner | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | Lokoya Road | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lady C | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pick Up the Fone | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Our Lady of Loreto | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rude Awaking | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Officer Hutchy | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gentle Annie | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lido Key | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tradeable | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Make Or Break | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Skye Snow | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sky Kitten | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sterling Beauty | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Minit Maus | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Apollo’s Abraxas | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Becky’s Mission | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pillar Mountain (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nakamura | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | He’s No Lemon | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Tea Time | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Taos (FR) | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Counter Offer | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Seize the Day | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Breithorn | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tri Saint Lorenzo | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Striking Speed | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lost in Rome | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Faze | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Market Impact | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | John Want Revenge | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3 | La Hara (IRE) | 1.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Oak Hill | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Duress | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Mo Gotcha | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Picasso | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Winning Factor | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Life On Top | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maximiliano | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Vintage Hollywood | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Cucina | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Binkster | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Blindwillie McTell | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bertranda | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fierce Lady | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Big Q | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Prairie Fire | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Letmetakethiscall | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jc’s Shooting Star | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My Roxy Girl | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Good Credence | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Puffery | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Playtone | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Awillaway | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Saratoga Oaks Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ricetta (GB) | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stunning Sky | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Enola Gay | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Speaktomeofsummer | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Antoinette | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Queens Embrace | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Key Biscayne | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Yankee Empire | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Bridge | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dangerous Edge | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Zinger | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ink Splotz | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Scocciatore | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Liam’s Fire | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Coolboy | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Boy Mo | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.