August 15, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bebe Banker | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Later Cat | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Somebody | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Invest | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Indigo Yankee | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Internet of Things | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Call the Cat | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strong One | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Polinesia | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rip It | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Public Sector (GB) | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rock Sugar | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Seizing the Dream | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Scarlett Sky | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dreaming of Gerry | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jimmy P | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Kukri | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mo Mischief | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Repo Rocks | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chateau | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lusitano | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bitumen | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Reed Kan | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mad Munnys | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hawaiian Noises | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Papa Luke | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Farragut | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Eccoci Qua | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | American Piper | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Quick Return | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Saratoga Pal | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Orb in the Tower | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Me ‘n Sap | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | No Lime | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Beach Front | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Brazen | 1.40 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Larceny | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fevola | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mandatory Payout | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | It’s a Risk | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Oneshotatforever | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zelenka | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ridolfo | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | King of American | 50.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Restored Order | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Engrave | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Swill | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Calibrate | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Unitedandresolute | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Donegal Bay | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Officiating | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | High Knuckles | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Indoctrinate | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Southern Passage | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Charleston Strong | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Mo Ready | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jimmy Jazz | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Albie | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Danfusi | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Steelersfanforlife | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Simply | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Bay | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kid d’Oro | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Jo’s Bold Cat | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sanctuary City | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Our Troubadour | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Jack the Cat | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Big Thicket | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Beach Access | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Saratoga Derby Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Decorated Invader | 1.40 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Colonel Liam | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Field Pass | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gufo | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Domestic Spending (GB) | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | No Word | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Get Smokin | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bama Breeze | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Alabama S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Spice Is Nice | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Swiss Skydiver | 1.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Crystal Ball | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Envoutante | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Harvey’s Lil Goil | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bonny South | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fire Coral | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Maxwell Esquire | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shiraz | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | New York’s Finest | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Royal Asset | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Valmont | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Call Me Harry | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bustin Shout | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Qian B C | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Outrageous Bet | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Mommie’s Jewel | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Michael’s Bad Boy | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bricco | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Golconda | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Sidd Finch | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Brickyard | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Banker | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | False Alarm | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Frozen Account | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | High Tone | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Black Irish | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Gen Z | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Nightspot | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Cin Cin Cowboy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Have a Heart | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Freedom and Whisky | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.