August 13, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Release the Heat | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eye On the Finish | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Foggy Flight | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Godsgift | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lillet | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I Don’t Want to Go | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Strong Will | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mojo Man | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Nuclear Option | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Star of Kodiak | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Impressed | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dugout | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Can’t Say No | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rio Seco | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Knockyourblockoff | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Follow the Signs | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Lost in Manhattan | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Club Soda | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Demand Ransom | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mongol Bull | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Nomo Ron | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wake Up Joe | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Never Have I Ever (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pablo Del Monte | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cousin Dario | 10.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Boston Charley | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Durango Kid | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Givin Up None | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | King Richie | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Skeeterskeets | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Lighted Road | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Grand Hideaway | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Driver Dan | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Captain Carnegie | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Land Mark Deal | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Bee Happy Attack | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Rag Tag | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grandal | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Major Attraction | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Kick | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hillbilly Deluxe | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Huey Attack | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Urban Light (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cause for Pardon | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Donivan My Boy | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Good Intent | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Love Your Buttons | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ecru | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hide the Evidence | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Crow Moon | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bear Trappe | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dumbmark | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Wildcat Lite | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elusive Force | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Jive Daddy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tio Chuy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Two Pair | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Internet Success | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kyzan | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Peteizum | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Battle N Away | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Barnyard Fiddler | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 9 | El Caminante | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ferlin Husky | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Greeleys Ice | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.