August 2, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Delaware Destiny | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mrs Frankel (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Uyuni | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blend | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Feeling Pretty | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Simply Ravishing | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Guana Cay | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Curlin Grey | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Walkoff | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mills | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shadow Rider | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Horoscope | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eden Ridge | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Real Dan | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Tide of the Sea | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Channel Island | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Alec | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bluegrass Parkway | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shore Magic | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | African Heritage | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Kilmarknock | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Determined One | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bank Gala | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | J P’s Song | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Long Island City | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bielefeld | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dreamofasamurai | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Prince Halo | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Talespin | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Unleveraged | 0.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ian Glass | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | War Film | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Megacity | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2A | 1 | Bad Guy | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Impazible Odds | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Coral Legacy | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Mr. Shortandsimple | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lady Lilly | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Dean | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beautiful Farewell | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Alluring Lady | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spun d’Etat | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Right to Freedom | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Malibu Luna | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Needacarcalllouie | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Morgantown | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Curl | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lutescoot N Boogie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Shiraz | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Square Shooter | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dowse’s Beach | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Banana Thief | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kitten’s Cat | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Discretionary Marq | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Duncastle | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Field of Courage | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thousand Percent | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Moonachie | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Fort Worth | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Riken | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Harris Bay | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Midnight Whiskey | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Wushu Warrior | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Gandy Dancing | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Leap to Glory | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Quintarelli | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Samay | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Inside Info | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Birdstone S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Moretti | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rocketry | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Expert | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | You’re to Blame | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Standard Deviation | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Highland Sky | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Double Advantage | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Buona Fina | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Height | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tactician | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kickin’ Kirby | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bubba Chuck | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | John Want Revenge | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Seediskid | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Striking Speed | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.