July 25, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Jc’s Shooting Star | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Speightstown Gal | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | A Little Faith | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | First Appeal | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Lovely La La | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Elegant Zip | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mary’s Girl | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | The Important One | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Midnight Surprise | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vivazano | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bankers Daughter | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Barbara’s Bank | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Theodora Grace | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New York Supreme | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Monificent | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Girl | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Munnings Muse | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Ballston Spa S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Starship Jubilee | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Call Me Love (GB) | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sistercharlie (IRE) | 0.40 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | North Broadway | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bramble Queen | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Another Broad | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lady C | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wedontbelieveher | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gracetown | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gone Glimmering | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cape Cod Diva | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spanish Point | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ok Honey | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Sir Alfred James | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Three Outlaws | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Wonder | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Standup | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Troubadour | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Unprecedented | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dubai Bobby | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ink Splotz | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coolboy | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ziller | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Coltandmississippi | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mojovation | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Malpais | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Aristocratic | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Preamble | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Autostrade | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Seethisquick | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Clench | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 9 | Bronzed | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tale of Mist | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Lonesome Fugitive (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Perjury Trap | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Proven Strategies | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Don Juan Kitten | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Kingmeister | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4A | 2 | Maroon Maniac | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Montauk Daddy | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Competitive Saint | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2A | 2 | Mister Winston | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Famished | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 8 | Arithmetic | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 6 | Money Moves | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Prioritize | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Parsimony | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I Love Jaxson | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Leitone (CHI) | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dynamax Prime | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Locally Owned | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | You’re to Blame | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Barleewon | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Stanhope | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mo Ready | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sanctuary City | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jimmy Jazz | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Jo’s Bold Cat | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Turbo Drive | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Albie | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Simply | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Steelersfanforlife | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coragescontender | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Curlin’s Legacy | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fleet Admiral | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bebe Banker | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Flying Finish | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Blackjack Davey | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Whitmore | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Firenze Fire | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Volatile | 0.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mind Control | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lexitonian | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Brovia | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Timeless Journey | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Go Zappem | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Frenchie Frou Frou | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Herwaze | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Baby Girl | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Micromillion | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eighty Seven North | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Molly’s Nighthawk | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mizzen the Mark | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tornado Crossing | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Gotta B Bold | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cemetery V I P | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Peerless | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.