July 24, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Valid Storm | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Come On Dover | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southsider | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Grey Mask | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dancin Nicky | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jettin Out | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Valiant Vinny | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ride Richie Ride | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sunshine Line | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dewy’s Hit | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lend It Tewmey | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mkar the Fast | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Weiland | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ferlin Husky | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Go Vo | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Roski | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jive Daddy | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tio Chuy | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kyzan | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sertoman | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | R H Smoakem | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Croce d’Oro | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Citali | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Richiesonarampage | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Supermans Cape | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Landing Gear | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Rank and File | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Backside Beauty | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Positive Danger | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Estardo | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Awesome Indra | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tango City | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Seven Seventeen | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Guest in My Heart | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Miracle Mountain | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Saturdays Hangover | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Orcus | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gold Hawk | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Volgograd | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cadet Captain | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Diamond Dave | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Ramsey | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Tannah’blu | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Good Mongolia | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heaven Escape | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paulette | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mila’s Dream (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Heart’s Passion | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Trophy Bridle | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Romantic Attack | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Logi | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Urban Light (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Good Intent | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Clear N Convincing | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sun Lover (GB) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Ecru | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Follow the Signs | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tetsu | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crow Moon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Midnight Joker | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Contraction | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | High On Sugar | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.