July 18, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mo Mischief | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Repo Rocks | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Holland | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bajan Rum | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Berhanu | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Momos | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Winning Factor | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Kringle | 0.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Battalion | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Catch That Party | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zipalong | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kilronan | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Quid | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Polar Bear Pete | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Decorated Invader | 1.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Domestic Spending (GB) | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moon Over Miami | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Get Smokin | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Ever Dangerous | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Money Moves | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Gufo | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Baby Boss | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Letmetakethiscall | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | No Deal | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady by Choice | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Archumybaby | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Queen Kahen | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jump for Joy | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | The Angry Man | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Conglomerate | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Oak Hill | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Red Flag Alert | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Matty’s Marauder | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Summer Tune | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Patriot Game | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vicarage | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Futuro | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Joycee Haz Pizzaz | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Obsessed | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | The Right Stuff (GB) | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nautilus | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rip It | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Pivotal Mission | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Catman | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zippy Baby | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Breakthrough | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Girl Dad | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rock Sugar | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ocala Dream | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Yaupon | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Binkster | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blindwillie McTell | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cucina | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kosciuszko | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Sicarii | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Peruvian Boy | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Singapore Trader | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hammerin Aamer | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kumar | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Musical Heart | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shalako | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hoffenheim | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flowers for Lisa | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Holiday Bonus | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Creative Style | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Set Piece (GB) | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Digital Age (IRE) | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ramsey Solution | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Midnight Tea Time | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Right Hand | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Noble Indy | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Its All Relevant | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Expert | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Coaching Club American Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tonalist’s Shape | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Paris Lights | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Crystal Ball | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Antoinette | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Velvet Crush | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Altaf | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Papa Luke | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Piper | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Top of the Mint | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Farragut | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Midnight Whiskey | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Make Motime | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Me ‘n Sap | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Perfect Banker | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quick Return | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7A | 7 | Royal Kaz | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 9 | Kaz’s Beach | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.