July 10, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lover Boy | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Man Flintstone | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Edgemont Road | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Crypto | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bizzee Channel | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Daylight | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tonka Flower | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Stand Tall | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fortuna | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | More Good Times | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sursum Corda | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fashion Mo | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Take Charge Patti | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | U S S Lexington | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Rearrange | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Golden Loch | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Shell Shock | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Breaking News | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Alfie Solomons | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Heros Reward | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gozilla | 1.80 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wild Popit | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hidden Ruler | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Luna’s in Charge | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Solomonic | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Guana Cay | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Golden Voice | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | One Fast Orb | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Yogurt | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Some Nights | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lollygag | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lucky Shore | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Silver Maple | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gigi’s Gift | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Scarf Queen | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Touch of Class | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lilac Lace | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Kitten With a Whip | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Whatserface | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Miss Magdalena | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Lolas Creed | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bourbon Resolution | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Scars Are Cool | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Troubling Moon | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Title Ready | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Mesa | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Treasure Trove | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thirstforlife | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Guest Suite | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Much Better | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Candy Cornell | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Travelling Midas | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Complexifier | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Early Mischief | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Almithmaar | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rubus | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Super Sol | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zipp On By | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Beaumont S. Presented By Keeneland Select
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Sconsin | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Slam Dunk | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Four Graces | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wicked Whisper | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Turtle Trax | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Speech | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Maker’s Mark Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Without Parole (GB) | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | War of Will | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Raging Bull (FR) | 1.80 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Next Shares | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Parlor | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Everfast | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hembree | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | English Bee | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | High Crime | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Emmaus (IRE) | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Dive Deep | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Baby White Sox | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Major Attraction | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | On Your Mark | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Scoby | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Mister K | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Vasariano | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Two by Two | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Okie Roughneck | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Americain Joey | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mine Own Star | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Backshot | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Company Clown | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Rotten Scoundrel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ahsad | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.