Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 2, 2020

July 2, 2020 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 La Kara Mia 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Sharp Starr 2.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Cross Keys 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Calidad 2.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Central Perk 8.00 4 7-1
7 7 Adriatic Holiday 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 Dancing Slippers 10.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Catch a Cab 1.80 2.8 5-1
5 5 Blue Pigeon 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Mission Command 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Control Group 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Honorable Hero 8.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 True Gold 20.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Curlin’s Legacy 20.00 6 11-1
7 7 O Shea Can U See 2.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Nutzforboltz 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Blackjack Davey 2.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 River Nile 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Microsecond 2.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Jade’s Dream 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Pacific Jazz 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 Royal Suspect 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Wakanda Forever 12.00 4.5 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Wicked Title 3.00 2 4-1
3 3 Rousey 5.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Let’s Maga 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Flashpackinbarbie 1.80 2.7 5-1
7 7 Dublinornothin 10.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Cairo Queen 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Two Graces 20.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Bella Invasion 30.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Tequila Sunday 5.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Malarkey 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Princess Mikayah 15.00 2.5 5-1
5A 5 First Forever 4.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 My Last Million 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Stay Fond 2.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Cotton Candy Cutie 10.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Tayler’s the Boss 20.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Peaches and Spice 50.00 7.9 15-1
10A 10 Zecha 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mister Winston 3.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Life Changer 4.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Creed 1.20 2.5 5-1
8 8 Villainous 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Edge of Fire 4.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Liveyourbeastlife 20.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Liam’s Fire 30.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Mr. Shortandsimple 30.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Spinoff 3.50 2 4-1
9 8 Complexity 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Sniper Shot 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Nicodemus 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Win Win Win 6.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Backsideofthemoon 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 No Dozing 15.00 5 9-1
1 1 Discreet Lover 20.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Wait for It 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Mount Vernon S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 War Canoe 3.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Fifty Five 0.80 2.6 5-1
4 4 Munchkin Money 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Classic Lady 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Fetching 15.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Kreesie 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Niko’s Dream 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Herwaze 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Cainudothetwist 4.50 2.8 5-1
12 10 Mizzen the Mark 6.00 3.8 7-1
11 9 Painite 3.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Peerless 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Apollo’s Abraxas 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Molly’s Nighthawk 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 8 Central Capital 8.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Gen Z 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Here Comes Bubbles 30.00 9 17-1
8 8 Choose Happiness 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Oak Creek Canyon 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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