June 5, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Fra Mauro | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lngtermrelationshp | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Katzarelli | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Knight’s Cross | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Verve’s Humor | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Johny’s Bobby | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Adhhar | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lyonaisse | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Whiskarita | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red Jersey | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mi Chachis Intenta | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lillet | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stellar Stiletto | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cafe Mischief | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Magna G Force | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Grab the Munny | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nomo Ron | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fascilitator | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sevier | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Park Ridge Benny | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cee R Bee | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Reason to Soar | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Twinkling Knight | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | So Caught Up in U | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Breakthrough | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lucky as a Seven | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Indy Tourist | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rustler | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brew Pub | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | County Final | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Workin It | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | New York One | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Baytown Bear | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Little Alex | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Our Commish | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Miss Magdalena | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mania | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hulen | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Fast Bob | 15.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | New Eagle | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Something Natural | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gangly | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ghost Game | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pepper Pike | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Carpe Victoriam | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Artemus Eagle | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jimmie T | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Olympic Romp | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Luminaire | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Got a Good Notion | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Teenage Kicks | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Orb’s Soul | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kisses for Heidi | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mrs. Kimberly K | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Actress On Board | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Justa Simple Girl | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bow Down Tewmey | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shedaresthedevil | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Betty | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fire Coral | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Alta’s Award | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lazy Daisy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mizzen Beau | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Embossed | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Auction Fever | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Eternal Peace | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Seranitsa | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vanilla Cat | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Caira | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Woodfin | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Private Beach | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Singita Dreams | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Templuna | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hashtag Winner | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jen Take Charge | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Smooth With a Kick | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lido Key | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ellens Birthday | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Channel Princess | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Velvet Crush | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | On d’Oro | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cernan | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Union | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Can’tbetemall | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Obiwan | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | J Z My Man | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dynacharge | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Beaver Hat | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Parkland | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mister K | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mishawaka | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Fast Cash | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Loan Shark | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.