May 30, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Brittle and Yoo | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Our Secret Agent | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Trapped N My Mind | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Saintsation | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dancewiththedevil | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hands Up | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Extra Effort | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lady Cleopatra | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Operatic | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fun Paddy | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Colorincolonel | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sun Dress | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Absolute Love | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Seeds of Time | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mongolian Humor | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Elle M’a Souri (FR) | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bastet | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Messina | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Flying the Colors | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Daddymademedoit | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Heavenly Peace | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pau Hana | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fashion Mo | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Malibu Marlee | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mille Fleurs | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tourist Like Me | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Exceblades | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Queen Medb (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sharethegoodtimes | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Talking Book | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Lipstikliesnlovers | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Creekmore | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Arch Ability | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Its My Bag Baby | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Johnny Cab | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hidden Promise | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Improbable Story | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Albert’s Barn | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Digital Star | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dontneedaname | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Forbetterorworse | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Why Why Paul Why | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Natural History | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chili Nelson | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Suspect | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magic Mo | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jerry’s Got Aces | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mr. Class | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Begin the Begin | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Time Heist | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | My Pal Dal | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Queen’s Mason | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Magic Sam | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Lover Boy | 30.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Buy Me Candy | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tabled | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Letmeno | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tiesto | 2.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Noble Order | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kid Mercury | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Angelus Warrior | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Prefect | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jurgen | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Czechmight | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Strike Appeal | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 19 | 19 | Adhhar | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Violent Pass | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Man in the Can | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 20A | 20 | Dack Janiel’s | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Pleasecallmeback | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sharecropper | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Moon Over Miami | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Spanish Kingdom | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strong Tide | 30.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Winning Colors S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Mia Mischief | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spiced Perfection | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sneaking Out | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Break Even | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bell’s the One | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Causeway | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Take Charge Angel | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unique Factor | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lady Suebee | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Ashiham | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bear Alley | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mau Mau | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aztec Empire | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bakers Bay | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Militarist | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Oceanic | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mud Pie | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | What a Country | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz the Journey | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dreams of Yvonne | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fifty Grand | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mine That Star | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Barbaroni | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tonaltalitarian | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | All About Will | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | Dixieincandyland | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Hidden Facts | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bingwa | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Whimsical Muse | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Unaquoi | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cardamon | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Even Beat | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Originator | 3.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I’llhandalthecash | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dance Rhythms | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fame Feather | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Baroness Vontrappe | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Queen of Shades | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | She’s All Skeet | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Holiday Time | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Vomba | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Tia Flor | 50.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Plus Que Parfait | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gun It | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Top Seed | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fearless | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Seek the Peak | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kaziranga | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Lone Rock | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Mischief | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Twelfth Labour | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Thirstforlife | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Full of Run | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Old Forester Mint Julep S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Beau Recall (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Altea (FR) | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | La Signare (FR) | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nay Lady Nay (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Secret Message | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Juliet Foxtrot (GB) | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Varenka | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Hanalei Moon | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Winning Envelope | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Mitchell Road | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’sonthewarpath | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Zofelle (IRE) | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Elizabeth Way (IRE) | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Coco Channel | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.