May 25, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9C | 8 | The Beat | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Full Velocity | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ruby Round Here | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tourrista | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Mr. Pickles | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Punctuation | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Innis | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | El Piquin | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Call Papa | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Albizu | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jamin’s Jet | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 14A | 14 | Tap the Town | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15C | 15 | Highest Mandate | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16B | 16 | Miss Magdalena | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Strikeitortapit | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 5B | 5 | Little Empire | 20.00 | 15.9 | 30-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Frank’s Rockette | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rising Seas | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Specially | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Turtle Trax | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Glamour | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Anna’s Fast | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Project Whiskey | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | C Z Rocket | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Nero | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Do Share | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hollis | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Malpais | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Petrov | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bye Bye Birdstone | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Colonel Klink | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Road Game | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | New Year’s Luck | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Eskendereyas Dream | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Glorious Weekend | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tidal Effect | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Metropol | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Interest | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Baquero Flies | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | She Love Me | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | He’s the Souperwon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Direct Approach | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Waverunner | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Run This Town | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Smart and Broke | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Wings Up | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Street to Indy | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shortlist | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gigging | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kurilov (CHI) | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Conquest Lemonraid | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Croatian | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Colonelsdarktemper | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Exemplar | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Chief Oakie Dokie | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cirrusly | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coldwater | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Evil Lyn | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Resurrection Road | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Twelve Monarchs | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Stylish Kitten | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spinning Top | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Drinkatthecreek | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tuxedo Lemon | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Be With Us | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Curls and Bows | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Stripping | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kinda Lucky | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Union Maiden | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ocean Breeze | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Love | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magic Motion | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ship’s Creek | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Raison d’Etre | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Market Rumor | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Free Cause | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Simply Beguiled | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Claudette Nonstop | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Moratta | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quality too Spare | 50.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Relentless Dancer | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Digital | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Echo Town | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | By Your Side | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Meru | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Little Menace | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Hop Kat | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Johnny Ritt | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Set Piece (GB) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Markitoff | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Award Winner | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Tribhuvan (FR) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Hierarchy | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Morocco | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | King Cause | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | My Bariley | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Limonite | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lost in Limbo | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Federal Law | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ramsey Solution | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Lone Rock | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bundibunan | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Tiz Mischief | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 20 | 20 | Seek the Peak | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Opry | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 19 | 19 | Kaziranga | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Evil Eye | 50.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kulik Bear | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Giant Honor | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bump Bailey | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Aggressivity | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Impunity | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Mine My Time | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Swither’s Shortcut | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Our Philly Special | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cadron Flats | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Beemie Award | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Girlolamo’glory | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Johnny Cab | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.