May 24, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Molly’s Game | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Maria Rose | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bonita Springs | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fun Sucker | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | C Islandsurprise | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Check Six | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sperling | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Catty Krys | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Morty | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Maleficent Queen | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ticket to Riches | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sunrise Countessa | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | It’s All Cash | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Annoula | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coco Caballo | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Champagne Affair | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mesange | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | April Entry | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Flame of Alberta | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bizby | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Calika Rose | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Real Late | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Proudly Fought | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Better Angels | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Every Single Day | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Whoville | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Worthaprettypenny | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Supreme Irene | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | War Film | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cashanova | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Beautiful Wall | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Spanned | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stock Trade | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Thomas Shelby | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sun Lover (GB) | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ecru | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lontani | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Determinant | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Briar Jumper | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Last Strike | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Whiskey Victor | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Shining Through | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Light of the World | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Vintage Hollywood | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Spanish Peaks | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Is Zippy | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Rain Dance | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Complete Surprise | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Strong Odor | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mariposa d’Oro | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gotta B the Salsa | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Factor Around | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lily Chaser | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady O’Prado | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | More Moet Pleez | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sally O’Brien | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Panini | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sally | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Quiet Company | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Got a Good Notion | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Carina | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Esther | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Love My Honey | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lemon Drop Twist | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Isabelle’s Joy | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gianna’s Gift | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | All Fact | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Promised Fame | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | She’s a Queen | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Twisted Emotions | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | She Wants More | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Princess Daniela | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Indicating | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | My Girl Rocket | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Boots n’ Battle | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Timely Miss | 30.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sea of Blue | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sister Kitten | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sister Hanan | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Enjoyitwhilewecan | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Puca Penny | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Crystal Lake | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11A | 11 | How Ironic | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Zurlin | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Appealing Audrey | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Julia’s Ready | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Mosaic | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Loving Moment | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Confessing | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Jen Take Charge | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Private Beach | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Xanthique | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Ria Munk | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Black Kettle | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 19A | 19 | Second Coming | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Oak Room | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Per Capita | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Backshot | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Copper King | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Established | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Continuation | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Beacon Hill | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pit Boss | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Haig Point | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rogue Element | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Old Sot | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tartufo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | First Line | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tiz the Journey | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Oceanic | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Malahini | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Smart | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Hallawallah | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Charming Lady | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Club Car | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Dos Vinos | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Four Grands | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Malibu Dawn | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Erv’s Wench | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Palace Avenger | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kiss More | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Centerfold Angel | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Whispering Beauty | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chaleur (GB) | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | War Cabinet | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Art of Almost | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mercilla | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mighty Scarlett | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Room to Finish | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Angel of Mischief | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wexx | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tweety Show | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Eliade (FR) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Clara Peeters (GB) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Zuzanna | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | High Regard | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Goodbye Earl | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lessons From Avery | 30.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mojovation | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pete’s Play Call | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Almithmaar | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Archiemyboy | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Hard Belle | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Charge the Line | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Land Battle | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Holly Blame | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Westwood Proud | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Blue Boy | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.