May 23, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Step Ten | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | No Bad Days | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Golden Notion | 1.60 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pow Wow Prince | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yashima | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Looking At Liberty | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Name Is Phred | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hug the Munny | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | White Wolf | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Victoryatvicksburg | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baby White Sox | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fast Cash | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Rob the Rich | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Quarterback Dak | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Suspect | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Judge Johnny | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Laddie Boy | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Strut the Ring | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Charlie’sarchangel | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dangerfield | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Slick Silver | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Altito | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | County Court | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I Will Stand | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kearny County | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tez | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Peddlers Pride | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Carolina Airness | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bubba Caballo | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fugitive | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belfast Boy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Runyon | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Blame the Cake | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | League of Legends | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Verb | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wartime Hero | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shadow Boat | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mulberry Street | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Inis Gluaire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Quality Warrior | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Beacon Hill | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Full Authority | 30.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Altaf | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bobby’s Goldengirl | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Valletta | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Take Charge Glenda | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Majorette | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ready N Waiting | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ithaca Falls | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Maid of Honor | 15.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Angel de Cora | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Deep Space | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Take Charge Patti | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Free | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Market Rumor | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ocean Breeze | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Wild Love | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Blonde by Nature | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Parlor | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hembree | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mr. Misunderstood | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Just Howard | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | English Bee | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Caribou Club | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Doctor Mounty | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | First Premio | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Real Story | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spooky Channel | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Made You Look | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | A Thread of Blue | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Get Western | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Fact Finding | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mick’s Star | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Picasso | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Get the Prize | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | High Crime | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Zoe’s Delight | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bigmancan | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hidden Ruler | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Breaking News | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | He’s a Babe | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Flatster | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Smart Time | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Creme de Cerise | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Shawnee S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | She’s a Julie | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Another Broad | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dunbar Road | 0.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vault | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moonlit Garden | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Awe Emma | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chocolate Kisses | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flower Party (IRE) | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Tepin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Abscond | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Alms | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sharing | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 13 | Eve of War | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Moral Reasoning | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Walk In Marrakesh (IRE) | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Outburst (GB) | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dominga | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | In Good Spirits | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jezebel’s Kitten | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pass the Plate | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Queen of God | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hendy Woods | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Heir of Light | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Oxum Power | 50.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Blame S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Owendale | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Backyard Heaven | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Global Campaign | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Silver Dust | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Diamond King | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Mr. Money | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Extrordinary Jerry | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Snapper Sinclair | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Long Range Toddy | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Alwaysmining | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Everfast | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Discreet Lover | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Resolution | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | American Anthem | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Matt Winn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Attachment Rate | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Major Fed | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Maxfield | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Pneumatic | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ny Traffic | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Shake Some Action | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Necker Island | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Informative | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flap Jack | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Celtic Striker | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mystic Guide | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Crypto Cash | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – War Chant S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 12 | Billy Batts | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pixelate | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Field Pass | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Smooth Like Strait | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hieronymus | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bodecream | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shared Sense | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Street Ready | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Island Commish | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | South Bend | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bama Breeze | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Liam’s Pride | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vanzzy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Natural Power (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 13 | Fenwick Station | 50.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.