Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 17, 2020

May 17, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Night Orchid 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Easy Tiger 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bionic Rosie 20.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Money Well Spent 6.00 4.7 9-1
11 10 Liam’s Lookout 5.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Common Courtesy 2.00 5.1 10-1
6 5 Orb’s Soul 5.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Bow Down Tewmey 12.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 My Sweet Kat 10.00 8.5 16-1
13 12 Signify 15.00 8.6 16-1
9 8 Tap N Sway 12.00 9.2 17-1
10 9 Native Charm 15.00 10.1 19-1
15 15 Gotta B the Salsa 10.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Temrik 20.00 11 21-1
7 6 Seminole Sisters 20.00 11.6 22-1
3 3 Fox Frey 20.00 11.7 22-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Cubbie Bear 20.00 SCRATCH
14 12 Hetty G. 3.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Traci’s Greeley 3.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Rathrbluckythngood 15.00 4.6 9-1
11 9 So Aristocratic 6.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Mi Chachis Intenta 5.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Heart River 4.00 5 9-1
15 15 Temperance Road 20.00 SCRATCH
13 11 A Wicked Wildcat 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Tarnish 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Abounding 15.00 6.6 12-1
10 8 Stellar Stiletto 15.00 6.9 13-1
12 10 Red Jersey 20.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Naughty Factor 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Olive U 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Boomerang Baby 50.00 11.9 23-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Sharp Art 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mine My Time 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Rockshaw 4.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Blinded Vision 6.00 4.3 8-1
15 11 Fascilitator 5.00 5 9-1
8 7 Codetowin 5.00 6 11-1
9 8 Powerful Ally 8.00 6 11-1
14 10 Hold Me Black 8.00 6.3 12-1
11 9 P R Radio Star 8.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Grab the Munny 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 State Treasurer 8.00 7.1 13-1
13 13 Tough Stuff 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Fuel the Bern 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Scarf It Down 15.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 Deep Sea 15.00 10.3 19-1
4 4 Saturday Tryst 20.00 11.6 22-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Irish Pharaoh 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Duopoly 3.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 Leftatthealtar 10.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Flabbergasted 4.00 5.7 11-1
12 12 Luck Money 4.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Well Respected 6.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Cat’s Pajamas 12.00 6.2 12-1
18 18 Eden 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Flying the Colors 4.50 SCRATCH
19 19 Garden Affair 5.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Valletta 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Sista of War 12.00 7.3 14-1
14 14 Fate Factor 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Indawin 12.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Three Flamingos 12.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Teller to Sing 15.00 9.9 19-1
20 20 She’s a Deal 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Favorite Sin 20.00 11.4 22-1
15 15 Urbana 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Moonlight Dancing 30.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 El Franco 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Yashima 30.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Smirk 6.00 3.7 7-1
9 8 Bourbon Wisdom 5.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Elite Class 6.00 4 8-1
7 6 Dean Martini 2.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Whata Perfect Day 6.00 5.1 10-1
10 9 Liberty’s Pursuit 10.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Niles Channel 10.00 5.7 11-1
13 12 Hoffa 15.00 6.1 12-1
11 10 Obiwan 15.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Stock Deal 20.00 6.7 13-1
12 11 Bear Oak 30.00 9.8 18-1
8 7 My Primo 30.00 10.9 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 4 Mississippi 4.00 3.3 6-1
8 5 Candy Store 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Mo Zone 3.50 SCRATCH
11 8 Knight’s Cross 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Never Even Called 10.00 SCRATCH
9 6 Honoring Major 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 2 Rucksack 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Witch Doctor 20.00 6.7 13-1
12 9 Tobacco Road 20.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Go Uncle Bob 10.00 SCRATCH
10 7 Macha’s Reward 30.00 8.2 15-1
5 3 Unity 30.00 9.1 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
19 19 She Can’t Sing 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Quiet Dignity 4.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Devious Charm 5.00 4 8-1
8 8 Fierce Scarlett 4.00 4.8 9-1
15 15 Private Beach 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Puca Penny 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Claudia Jean (IRE) 12.00 5.2 10-1
17 17 Bourbina 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Temple City Terror 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Lost Ticket 4.50 5.6 11-1
1 1 Edgee Angel 15.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Duchess of Sussex 5.00 6 11-1
2 2 Mission From Elle 15.00 6.2 12-1
18 18 Second Coming 3.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Well Spent 20.00 6.6 13-1
13 13 Confessing 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Glamour Gal 20.00 7 13-1
14 14 Sister Hanan 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Las Ramblas 50.00 14.8 28-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Compelling Smile 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Between the Hedges 4.50 2.9 5-1
11 11 Don’t Mine Me 6.00 3 6-1
9 9 Raggedy Annie 4.00 3 6-1
2 2 Wicked Title 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Blinkers 4.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Mama Don’t Preach 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Queenofcatniphill 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 City Fun 12.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Templuna 20.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Letters to Belle 20.00 8.7 16-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Wrecking Crew 3.50 3.2 6-1
9 8 Toledo 2.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 My Man Flintstone 8.00 5 9-1
10 9 Art Collector 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 He’s a Babe 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Acre 10.00 6.1 12-1
6 5 Mr. Shortandsimple 12.00 7.1 13-1
11 10 Patrol 12.00 7.1 13-1
8A 7 Olson 12.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Juggernaut 15.00 7.5 14-1
12 11 Victory Boulevard 15.00 8.1 15-1
5 4 King Theo 15.00 8.4 16-1
13A 13 Sense of Justice 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Maven 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Guildsman (FR) 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Four Wheel Drive 2.00 6.2 12-1
16 16 Johnny Unleashed 20.00 SCRATCH
11 9 Chimney Rock 5.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Jack and Noah (FR) 8.00 6.7 13-1
18 18 Banks Island 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bango 10.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Race Driver 12.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Jamming Cameron 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Hopeful Treasure 10.00 8.3 16-1
15 15 Williston Way 30.00 SCRATCH
14 12 Kierkegaard 20.00 10.7 20-1
17 17 Hop Kat 2.50 SCRATCH
9 8 The Gray Blur 30.00 13.1 25-1
13 11 City Front 30.00 13.5 26-1
12 10 Betchaiwill 30.00 13.6 26-1
2 2 Alec and Arthur 30.00 15.2 29-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Bubba Caballo 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Chasing Anna 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Toshio 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Hoof Prince 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Kowalski 3.50 3.3 6-1
15 15 Belfast Boy 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Uncle Kick 12.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Whisky Man 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Entertainment 12.00 6.1 11-1
14 14 Peddlers Pride 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Danzar 12.00 6.9 13-1
16 16 New Frontier 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Prince Jersey Town 15.00 7.8 15-1
11 11 Real Man 20.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 The Feature 15.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Bourbon Native 30.00 11.5 22-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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