Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 16, 2020

May 16, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Skyburst 6.00 2.7 5-1
13 12 The Main Factor 20.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 Takechargecomanche 15.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 J’s Warrior 12.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Can Imagine 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Ugo 6.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 One If by Land 20.00 8.1 15-1
11 10 Creal Wonder 30.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Dr. Albert 30.00 8.3 16-1
8 7 Fars Glitter 20.00 8.8 17-1
10 9 Arch Ability 3.00 9 17-1
12 11 Baudette Blizzard 2.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Sailor Again 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Noble Companion 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Shaw 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Taino House 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Strollin the Bayou 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 Lady Cleopatra 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Tempestuous Amy 20.00 3.6 7-1
9 8 Rahway 4.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Diamondcoat 4.00 4.2 8-1
7 6 My Wynter Rose 20.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Dutch Treat 6.00 5.1 10-1
8 7 Yield 6.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Seeds of Time 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Tom’s Last General 3.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Skip Chaser 30.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Uncle Gregory 15.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Louie’s Kingdom 2.50 6.1 12-1
8 7 Big Island 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 He’s the Souperwon 3.50 7.1 13-1
12 11 Jimmy At Last 6.00 7.2 14-1
9 8 Wallet 12.00 7.8 15-1
13 12 Try Try Again 10.00 7.9 15-1
10 9 Baquero Flies 12.00 8 15-1
7 6 Kolten’s Court 30.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Unbridled Ruler 15.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 Hitthegroundrunnin 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Nice of Me 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Botero 1.60 SCRATCH
16 16 Not Again Jackie 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lady Kate 3.50 2 4-1
6 6 Talk Veuve to Me 3.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Fashion Faux Pas 10.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Estilo Femenino 15.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Monomoy Girl 0.80 3.9 7-1
4 4 Red Dane (ITY) 15.00 4 8-1
1 1 Miss Bigly 15.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 9 Implication 3.00 2.2 4-1
9 7 Enchanted Empire 12.00 3.1 6-1
10 8 Fortuity 6.00 3.7 7-1
18 12 Amani’s Eagle 3.00 4.5 8-1
7 5 Oxide 8.00 6.2 12-1
3 1 Pip’s Brassy Boy 20.00 6.3 12-1
13 10 A. K. Safari 8.00 7.5 14-1
8 6 Handy 8.00 7.8 15-1
4 2 Contractor Bill 20.00 8.2 16-1
14 11 Baker’s Man 20.00 8.5 16-1
5 3 Indian Springs 50.00 8.7 17-1
2 2 Mr Jaggers 3.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Summer Palace 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Parkland 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Reigning Spirit 12.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Obiwan 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Better Tapit 6.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Fan Favorite 20.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 How’s My Bud 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Starship Mercury 30.00 6 11-1
7 7 Where Y’at Joe Joe 6.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Irritator 3.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Here’s Carlos 5.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Strong Yen 6.00 6.8 13-1
12 12 Mark My Way 12.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Knights Key 6.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Twinkling Knight 30.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Floroplus 4.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Tee Tee 30.00 9.6 18-1
4 4 Tommytom 20.00 9.6 18-1
13 13 Tale of Fame 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 So Caught Up in U 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 All Hansens Ondeck 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Summerduck 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Offering 8.00 2.4 5-1
9 8 Rocks That I Got 15.00 3.2 6-1
11 10 Bernadette the Jet 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Majestic Blend 12.00 3.6 7-1
12 11 Stonewood 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Tormenta 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 April in Paris 20.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Say Moi 2.50 4.9 9-1
13 12 Lustica 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Golden Star Lady 8.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Mystic Miss 20.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Skinny Dip 6.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Saintsation 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kinda Lucky 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Quality too Spare 50.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Magic Motion 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Danny California 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 2 Mind the Gap 12.00 5.4 10-1
13 7 Where’s Oliver 8.00 6.4 12-1
17 9 Dinar 3.00 6.5 12-1
9 4 Motagally 6.00 6.9 13-1
12 6 Clear for Action 12.00 7 13-1
14 8 Mantra 10.00 7.2 14-1
2 1 Hellorhighwater 8.00 7.7 14-1
10 5 Sea of Hope 10.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 Labeq 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Limnery 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 El Ahijado 50.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Uncapped 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tankerville 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Nepal Up 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Hackberry 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bama Breeze 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 1 News Flash 10.00 2.9 6-1
12 9 Admire 5.00 2.9 6-1
13 10 Incorrigible 10.00 3.2 6-1
11 8 Smile Bryan 6.00 4.2 8-1
14 11 Grove Daddy 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 4 Sacred Oath 12.00 4.8 9-1
4 2 Yamano Maker (JPN) 6.00 5.3 10-1
9 6 Box of Chocolates 10.00 6.5 12-1
10 7 Saratogian 12.00 6.5 12-1
8 5 Hersh 10.00 6.6 12-1
5 3 Royal Commission 12.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Patrol 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Adhhar 6.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Going With Style 50.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Comedian 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Soul Beam 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 9 Aurelia Garland 8.00 2.9 5-1
7 6 Sconsin 12.00 6.6 12-1
12 10 Gone Glimmering 10.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Miss T Too 4.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Joysome 8.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Portrait 4.00 7.1 13-1
8 7 Four Graces 4.50 7.5 14-1
1 1 Mo City 4.50 7.7 15-1
13 11 Chart 15.00 8 15-1
15 12 Bourbina 20.00 8.5 16-1
9 8 French Rose 30.00 8.9 17-1
3 3 Blood Curdling 20.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 Long Point Beach 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Myeerah 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Four Grands 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Persian Queen 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Call On Mischief 8.00 4.8 9-1
14 9 Tulanian 12.00 5.2 10-1
10 7 Fly So Pretty 3.50 5.4 10-1
4 3 Karak 4.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 Ilchester Cheetah 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 5 Ununderstandable 10.00 6.4 12-1
15 10 Rising Seas 4.00 6.4 12-1
2 1 Reagan’s Edge 30.00 7.3 14-1
12 8 Monedas de Oro 50.00 7.7 15-1
7 6 Owner’s Suite 50.00 9.3 18-1
1 1 Bayerly Seen 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Fashionable Lady 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Bredenbury (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Chili Petin 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Kodikova (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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