May 16, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Skyburst | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | The Main Factor | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Takechargecomanche | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | J’s Warrior | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Can Imagine | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ugo | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | One If by Land | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Creal Wonder | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dr. Albert | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fars Glitter | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Arch Ability | 3.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Baudette Blizzard | 2.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sailor Again | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Noble Companion | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Shaw | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Taino House | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Strollin the Bayou | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lady Cleopatra | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tempestuous Amy | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rahway | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Diamondcoat | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Wynter Rose | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dutch Treat | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Yield | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Seeds of Time | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Tom’s Last General | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Skip Chaser | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uncle Gregory | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Louie’s Kingdom | 2.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Big Island | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | He’s the Souperwon | 3.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Jimmy At Last | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Wallet | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Try Try Again | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Baquero Flies | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kolten’s Court | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unbridled Ruler | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Nice of Me | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Botero | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Not Again Jackie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lady Kate | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Talk Veuve to Me | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fashion Faux Pas | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Estilo Femenino | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Monomoy Girl | 0.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Dane (ITY) | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Bigly | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Implication | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Enchanted Empire | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Fortuity | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 18 | 12 | Amani’s Eagle | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Oxide | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Pip’s Brassy Boy | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | A. K. Safari | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Handy | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Contractor Bill | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Baker’s Man | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Indian Springs | 50.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Jaggers | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Summer Palace | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Parkland | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Reigning Spirit | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Obiwan | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Better Tapit | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Fan Favorite | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | How’s My Bud | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Starship Mercury | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Where Y’at Joe Joe | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Irritator | 3.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Here’s Carlos | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Strong Yen | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mark My Way | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Knights Key | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Twinkling Knight | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Floroplus | 4.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tee Tee | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tommytom | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tale of Fame | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | So Caught Up in U | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | All Hansens Ondeck | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Summerduck | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Offering | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rocks That I Got | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bernadette the Jet | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Majestic Blend | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Stonewood | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tormenta | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | April in Paris | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Say Moi | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Lustica | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Star Lady | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mystic Miss | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Skinny Dip | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Saintsation | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kinda Lucky | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Quality too Spare | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Magic Motion | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Danny California | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mind the Gap | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Where’s Oliver | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 17 | 9 | Dinar | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Motagally | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Clear for Action | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 8 | Mantra | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hellorhighwater | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Sea of Hope | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Labeq | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Limnery | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | El Ahijado | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Uncapped | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tankerville | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Nepal Up | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Hackberry | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bama Breeze | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | News Flash | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Admire | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Incorrigible | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Smile Bryan | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Grove Daddy | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sacred Oath | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Yamano Maker (JPN) | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Box of Chocolates | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Saratogian | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Hersh | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Royal Commission | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Patrol | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Adhhar | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Going With Style | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Comedian | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Soul Beam | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Aurelia Garland | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sconsin | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Gone Glimmering | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss T Too | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Joysome | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Portrait | 4.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Four Graces | 4.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mo City | 4.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Chart | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Bourbina | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | French Rose | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blood Curdling | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Long Point Beach | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Myeerah | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Four Grands | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Persian Queen | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Call On Mischief | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 9 | Tulanian | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Fly So Pretty | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Karak | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ilchester Cheetah | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ununderstandable | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 10 | Rising Seas | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Reagan’s Edge | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Monedas de Oro | 50.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Owner’s Suite | 50.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bayerly Seen | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fashionable Lady | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bredenbury (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Chili Petin | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Kodikova (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.