Sports from the Basement

Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 2, 2020

May 2, 2020 Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 War Ballad 30.00 1.1 2-1
11 9 Jaccat 8.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Full of Grace 4.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Lexington Grace (IRE) 20.00 2 4-1
7 7 First Alternate 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Hawt Mess 12.00 4.6 9-1
12 10 She’s a Dime 15.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Timely Tradition 3.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 A. P. Princess 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 True Castle 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Miss Imperial 4.50 11.2 21-1
6 6 Lady C 20.00 11.6 22-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Undecidedcertainty 30.00 1 2-1
9 8 Spurwink Lane 20.00 1 2-1
11 10 Clay’s Quartz 20.00 1 2-1
12 11 Hurricane Tizway 15.00 1.1 2-1
4 3 Portofina 12.00 1.1 2-1
5 4 Extra Effort 8.00 1.1 2-1
10 9 Bonus Baby 6.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 She’s the Boss 5.00 1.1 2-1
8 7 Take Charge Glenda 5.00 1.1 2-1
3 2 Brittle and Yoo 4.00 1.1 2-1
6 5 Scolding 3.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Golden Eyed Queen 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Gurl You Fine 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Shallow 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 My Golden Diablo 4.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Destinedtobeastar 12.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Reef’s Destiny 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Bebop Shoes 6.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Cowboy Cactus Jack 20.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Wasabi Moon 15.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Jack Be Quick 12.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Bogey 30.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Captain Don 3.50 8.7 16-1
13 13 Sir Brahms 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Macho Rocco 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Call Me Derby 8.00 11.7 22-1
1 1 Bank Man 12.00 13.7 26-1
4 4 Tempt Fate 4.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Macho Bob 30.00 1 2-1
4 3 Toussaint 20.00 1 2-1
6 5 My Northern Star 15.00 1 2-1
8 7 J Z My Man 5.00 1 2-1
9 8 Uncle Addouma 4.00 1 2-1
12 11 Gonna Get Loud 12.00 1 2-1
13 12 Illuminati 20.00 1 2-1
10 9 Im Justa Bachelor 10.00 1.3 2-1
5 4 Quality Warrior 15.00 1.3 2-1
2 1 Bold Proposition 12.00 1.3 2-1
11 10 Bank 3.00 1.3 3-1
7 6 Major Attraction 3.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Brother Jukebox 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Gambler Rocket 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Rated R Superstar 8.00 1 2-1
9 7 Bankit 4.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Chris and Dave 10.00 2.5 5-1
8 6 Two Thirty Five 8.00 3 6-1
12 10 Pirate’s Punch 3.00 3.7 7-1
10 8 Lone Rock 20.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Lombo 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Treasure Trove 15.00 4.3 8-1
13 11 Operation Stevie 15.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Long Range Toddy 12.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Mick’s Star 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Kershaw 20.00 SCRATCH
11 9 Endorsed 3.50 12.7 24-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Wild Tonight 30.00 1 2-1
7 7 Ring of Fire 10.00 1 2-1
10 10 F F Rocket 12.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Friar’s Road 3.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Beaver Hat 15.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Apple Empire 20.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Second Line David 8.00 1.3 2-1
12 12 Tonaltalitarian 12.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Wild Union 6.00 1.3 2-1
11 11 Absolute Unit 5.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Hunt the Front 4.00 1.3 3-1
6 6 What a Country 10.00 1.4 3-1
13 13 Baker’s Man 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Divine Armor 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Gamine 1.40 1 2-1
9 7 Foreign Exchange 20.00 2.2 4-1
11 9 Queen Bridget 15.00 2.5 5-1
6 4 Seahawk Lisa 20.00 3 6-1
3 1 Black Kat Taps 20.00 3 6-1
5 3 Roadrunner’s Honor 20.00 3 6-1
4 2 Orquidias Biz 15.00 3 6-1
10 8 Speech 2.00 4.8 9-1
7 5 Kiss the Girl 6.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Mi Bella 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Compelling Smile 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Brave Cinderella 20.00 SCRATCH
12 10 Bootytama 15.00 13.8 26-1
13 11 Ain’t No Elmers 2.50 13.8 26-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Don Vito Corleone 12.00 1 2-1
6 6 Caribbean (AUS) 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Times Square 20.00 2.7 5-1
11 10 Defender 20.00 3.5 7-1
10 9 Moretti 2.50 4.7 9-1
5 5 Fra Mauro 4.50 6 11-1
8 8 Dukes Up 10.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Wild Popit 10.00 7.1 14-1
1 1 Benintendi 8.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Firery Tale 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sandino Ruler (ARG) 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Courting a Kiss 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Tentwelvefourteen 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Fortheluvofbourbon 8.00 13.8 26-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Proverb 8.00 0.3 1-1
9 9 Eskenforit 20.00 0.8 1-1
5 5 Sonny Smack 6.00 1.2 2-1
12 12 Dunph 20.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Popular Kid 4.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Lord Guinness 15.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Mo Gotcha 12.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Rotation 4.50 2 4-1
11 11 Home Run Trick 15.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Extirpator 30.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Always 8.00 4.8 9-1
13 13 Arrival 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Altito 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Fearless 3.00 13.8 26-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 12 Slew Tang Clan 20.00 1 2-1
5 4 Spanish Kingdom 8.00 1.1 2-1
9 8 Special Day 30.00 1.1 2-1
10 9 Prodigious Bay 5.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Life On the Road 20.00 4.4 8-1
7 6 Candy Tycoon 3.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Ginobili 3.50 5.8 11-1
6 5 Amen Corner 50.00 6.8 13-1
4 3 Villainous 15.00 9 17-1
12 11 Background 15.00 9.1 17-1
3 3 Strong Tide 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kadesh 5.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Katzarelli 20.00 13.6 26-1
11 10 Rushie 2.50 13.7 26-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Arkansas Derby

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 7 Winning Impression 15.00 0.8 1-1
2 2 My Friends Beer 20.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mo Mosa 30.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Jungle Runner 30.00 2.4 4-1
8 6 Anneau d’Or 6.00 2.5 5-1
10 8 Crypto Cash 20.00 4.4 8-1
11 9 Basin 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Gouverneur Morris 4.50 6.5 12-1
6 6 Shooters Shoot 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Wrecking Crew 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Charlatan 1.00 10.8 20-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Oaklawn H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Chess Chief 30.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Bravazo 30.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Combatant 4.00 1.1 2-1
10 10 Captivating Moon 20.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Sky Promise 20.00 4.3 8-1
13 13 Night Ops 15.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 Tax 15.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Trophy Chaser 12.00 8.2 15-1
12 12 By My Standards 4.50 9.3 18-1
5 5 Identifier 20.00 9.3 18-1
14 14 Improbable 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Mr Freeze 6.00 10.9 21-1
9 9 Tacitus 4.50 11.4 22-1
6 6 Warrior’s Charge 8.00 13.6 26-1

RACE NUMBER 13 (Stakes) – Arkansas Derby

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Finnick the Fierce 15.00 0.9 2-1
6 5 Code Runner 50.00 1.1 2-1
10 8 Farmington Road 12.00 1.5 3-1
4 3 King Guillermo 3.00 2.5 5-1
7 6 Silver Prospector 10.00 3 6-1
9 7 Taishan 15.00 3.3 6-1
3 2 Storm the Court 6.00 3.3 6-1
11 9 Wells Bayou 3.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Saratogian 50.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Fast Enough 12.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Nadal 2.50 10.8 20-1

RACE NUMBER 14 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dangerfield 6.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 The Rouge Diesel 15.00 4.4 8-1
12 12 She Might Tell 10.00 5.5 10-1
13 13 Curlin Grey 10.00 6 11-1
3 3 Stuart Hall 20.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Whole Lotta Luck 20.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 Wild About You 10.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Take Charge d’Oro 10.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 Magic Vow 5.00 8.9 17-1
14 14 River Echo (GB) 8.00 9 17-1
2 2 Hard to Impress 50.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Wickets Way 8.00 10.9 21-1
5 5 Carlos Sixes 4.00 11.6 22-1
8 8 Ghostly Who 12.00 13.7 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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