Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, March 19, 2020

March 19, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 4 Time to Rome 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 3 Last Nite Out 3.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Don Guillermo 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 Senator Con 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 My Guitar 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Private Reality 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Double Cool 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Fame Feather 1.40 1.5 3-1
4 3 Mr. Al’s Gal 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 1 Tenpins Tempo 4.00 4 8-1
1 4 Fort Polk 5.00 4.3 8-1
3 2 Silver Squall 10.00 7.3 14-1
1A 8 New Year’s Party 5.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Diamond Cutter 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Play Unified 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Heart River 2.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Belmar Beauty 3.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Silent Trick 5.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Callhermrsgelner 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Hero of Love 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Stop the Friend 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Five O’Clock 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Major Glady’s Team 20.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Candizar 3.50 2.2 4-1
3 2 He’s the Souperwon 4.50 2.3 4-1
4 3 One Hitter 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 4 Rosslare Harbour 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Expect Ice 12.00 5.7 11-1
7 5 Little Wise Guy 20.00 8.2 16-1
2 2 Copper Fiddle 2.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Tom’s Last General 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Napoleon’s Empire 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 3 Ace Destroyer 2.50 1.7 3-1
1A 5 Undercover Lover 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 There and Back 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 7 Coltonator 6.00 5.8 11-1
2 1 Grove Daddy 6.00 5.8 11-1
5 6 Cool Quartet 6.00 6 11-1
3 2 Papajudgy 8.00 7.3 14-1
7 8 Catalogue 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Evil Lyn 3.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Darling Vera 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Cirrusly 4.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Priceless Nellie 4.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Bella Belle 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Fashion Island 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Scary Animal 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Saint Kennedy 15.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Southern Liaison 3.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Sincerity 3.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Storied Trip 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Wildabout Audrey 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Oretta 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Lady Hopper 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 R T’s Duchess 8.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Ericka Rocks 10.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Sienna Breeze 15.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Star’s Dream 20.00 8.7 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Morning Molly 3.50 1.7 3-1
10 11 Arabella Bella 4.00 2.5 5-1
1A 10 Rosebud’s Hope 4.50 2.5 5-1
8 8 Clara Peeters (GB) 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 3 Lexington Grace (IRE) 4.50 3.2 6-1
2 6 Fortunate Girl 8.00 4.2 8-1
2B 7 Wings of Dawn 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 2 Decorated Ace 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 4 Miss Mercken 8.00 5 9-1
9 9 Russian Mafia 10.00 6.2 12-1
3 1 Quick Quick Quick 12.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Makeme Dream 20.00 SCRATCH
11 13 Tiz Ella 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Sheza Mean Broad 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 5 Lassie’s Last Hour 3.00 1.7 3-1
9 7 Lil Ashley B. 4.50 2.2 4-1
5 4 Breezin Bye You 6.00 2.9 6-1
4 3 One Fine Pinot 15.00 6.7 13-1
8 6 Overly Sweet 20.00 8.2 16-1
3 2 Little Girls Rule 20.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Crider Chase 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Double Red 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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