Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, February 28, 2020

February 28, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Spellbinding 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Star’s Dream 5.00 3 6-1
7 6 Hip Flask 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Foursweetnieces 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Zydeco Music 3.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Custom Gulch 8.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Able Catch 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Richie Gary 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Stuck in Vegas 3.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Unrestricted 2.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Don Guillermo 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Guitar King 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Three Run Homer 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Confederate Yell 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Mr. Four Sevens 8.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Fist of Rage 4.50 3.5 7-1
1 2 Social Misfit 2.00 4.2 8-1
2 1 Chop Chop Charlie 5.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Got Gold 3.50 4.4 8-1
3 3 Grand Marais 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Woman With a Book 8.00 5.7 11-1
1A 8 Magic Vow 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Cajun Pinata 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Tupelo Hon E 4.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Lady Kaza 4.50 3.3 6-1
9 9 Strict Vow 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Angel of Verdun 6.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Badgeri Candy 8.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Speed too Tume 8.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Miss Sooner Girl 8.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Notorious Gal 8.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Ballybrack Lass 8.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Red Hot Devil 4.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Trinity N Roux 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Move It 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Archrival 4.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Magi 4.50 3.5 7-1
8 8 Groom Lake 10.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Southern Light 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Suvorov’s Hero 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 A Song for Arch 5.00 4 8-1
5 5 Asongforyou 4.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Eden Grey’s Kitten 4.50 4.7 9-1
3 3 Future Ruler 3.50 5.1 10-1
4 4 Mr. Priority 6.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Queeten 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Overruling 8.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Jake the Band Man 15.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Kid Creole 20.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Pay the Dream 20.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 Scarlettsblackjack 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Temprano 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Play Unified 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 2 Diamond Crazy 2.50 2.6 5-1
4 3 Mr. Al’s Gal 2.00 3.5 7-1
7 5 Saints N Muskets 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Fugitive Lady 12.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 New Year’s Party 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Diamond Cutter 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Conquest Lemonraid 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 5 Take That for Data 4.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Kitten’s Boy 4.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Hitch 8.00 4.5 8-1
8 7 Believeinholidays 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Tom Management 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Rescind 5.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Cade’s On the Bump 15.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Knight’s Cross 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 So Alive 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sir Advent 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Madelyn’s Wild Max 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 My Pal Torres 2.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Spring Value 4.50 3.8 7-1
2 2 Papa’s Big Boy 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 It’s Mike’s Turn 20.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 Blue Choice 20.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Christopher Cat 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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