Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, February 28, 2020

February 28, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Fevola 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Three Eyed Raven 5.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Cause I Said So 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 1 First Degree 2.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Shadow Caster 12.00 SCRATCH
5 3 Colloquist 12.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Silver Excess 6.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Daria’s Angel 1.20 1.7 3-1
3 3 No Deal 3.00 1.8 3-1
6 5 Miss Jak 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Whyisshesoolucky 12.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Annie Rocks 15.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Philly Completely 3.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Mills 0.80 1.8 3-1
7 6 Lucky Ramsey 5.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Calculated Risker 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 2 Purchasing Power 12.00 3.9 7-1
2 1 So Sublime 20.00 5.1 10-1
6 5 Le Gros Bill 30.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Seed Money 2.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Our Stormin Norman 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 3 Mandatory Payout 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 2 Bassman Dave 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 1 Chuckles 10.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Papa Jim 2.50 SCRATCH
5 4 Ventus 15.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Its a Wrap 1.60 1.2 2-1
6 6 First Line 4.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Mr Phil 2.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Prince of Caps 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Spitball 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Emancipation Gold 15.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Not So Easy 12.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lucky Move 1.60 1.7 3-1
1 1 Play Me a Memory 4.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Unbridledadventure 4.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Little Song 12.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Might Be 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 The Great Johanna 5.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Peaches and Spice 50.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bustin Shout 8.00 SCRATCH
7 6 The Caretaker 1.40 1.9 4-1
4 3 Playthatfunnymusic 3.00 2.6 5-1
8 7 Le General 4.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Summer Bourbon 6.00 3.4 7-1
5A 4 Bronx Bomber 8.00 4.6 9-1
6A 5 Vicar’s Legend 8.00 5 9-1
3 2 Hushion 15.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Winifred J 5.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Questeq 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Sea Sparkle 4.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Miss Mi Mi 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Five Alarm Robin 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 8 Cape Cod Diva 8.00 4 8-1
4 4 Dovey Lovey 5.00 4 8-1
2 2 Quietude 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Shesasuperfreak 20.00 7.6 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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