Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday, February 25, 2020

February 25, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tiz Darby 4.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Sarah Ann’s Pointe 5.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Interslew 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Sandy’s Wager 4.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Lexi Em 2.50 4 8-1
6 6 Space Cowgirl 6.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Emery’s Dream 5.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Floatie 15.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 6 Race Driver 1.60 2.8 5-1
1 3 Lucky Curlin 1.60 2.8 5-1
2 5 Cyril’s Boy 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 2 Kingpin 2.50 3.6 7-1
7 9 Carpe Victoriam 6.00 5.1 10-1
2B 7 Money Biz 5.00 5.1 10-1
3 1 Yes He Can 10.00 5.5 10-1
6 8 Palvera 8.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 Runchiefrun 12.00 6.7 13-1
8 10 Carpe Noctem 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Lemon Drop Twist 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 4 Dragon Dragon 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Color Fashioned 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Holdonaminit 4.50 4 8-1
4 3 Blazing Hero 4.50 4.6 9-1
7 6 Proudmoney 10.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Kenai Cool 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Yougotanotion 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Champagne Diet 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Zurlin 4.50 3 6-1
5 4 Twirling Faith 10.00 5.1 10-1
8 5 Fine One Won 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 2 Golden Loch 8.00 6 11-1
2 2 Daddymademedoit 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Karakontieparadise 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Bonbourbon 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Inspector Eddie 4.00 3.1 6-1
4 2 Reckless Ransom 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 3 Flashy Brew 5.00 4 8-1
1 1 Laughingsaintssong 2.50 4.1 8-1
7 5 Yankee Seven 8.00 4.5 8-1
8 6 Mageez 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Monte Man 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Win Lion Win 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Parlor 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Zumurudee 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 My Bariley 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Emmaus (IRE) 2.50 4 7-1
3 3 Argentello (IRE) 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Zero Gravity 10.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Sailing Solo 4.50 4.7 9-1
4 4 Nice Not Nice 15.00 6 11-1
9 9 Sonneteer 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Twelfth Labour 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Boyfriend Material 2.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Early Mischief 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 Irritator 5.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Omega Moon 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Federal Case 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 My Friend Flavin 12.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Mardi Gras S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Hotshot Anna 4.50 4.6 9-1
11 9 Play On 6.00 4.9 9-1
4 2 Eyeinthesky 10.00 5.1 10-1
12 10 Bell’s the One 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 3 Unbridled Class 8.00 5.5 10-1
6 4 Aiken to Be 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Lake Local 12.00 5.8 11-1
7 5 A Thousand Reasons 12.00 6.5 12-1
9 7 Change of Control 12.00 6.6 12-1
10 8 On Probation 30.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Spectralight (IRE) 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Break Even 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Lunar Approach 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Diamond Palace 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 2 Amazing American 5.00 2.8 5-1
9 8 Tapit On Race Day 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 6 Magical Candy 4.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Stormie Court 12.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Ready Redding 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 5 Incased in Time 15.00 4.7 9-1
8 7 First Metal Count 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 One Tough Charlie 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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