February 25, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Darby | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sarah Ann’s Pointe | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Interslew | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sandy’s Wager | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lexi Em | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Space Cowgirl | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Emery’s Dream | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Floatie | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 6 | Race Driver | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Lucky Curlin | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 5 | Cyril’s Boy | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Kingpin | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 9 | Carpe Victoriam | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2B | 7 | Money Biz | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Yes He Can | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 8 | Palvera | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Runchiefrun | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 10 | Carpe Noctem | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Lemon Drop Twist | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dragon Dragon | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Color Fashioned | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Holdonaminit | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Blazing Hero | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Proudmoney | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kenai Cool | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Yougotanotion | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Champagne Diet | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zurlin | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Twirling Faith | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Fine One Won | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Golden Loch | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Daddymademedoit | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Karakontieparadise | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Bonbourbon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Inspector Eddie | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Reckless Ransom | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Flashy Brew | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Laughingsaintssong | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Yankee Seven | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mageez | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Monte Man | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Win Lion Win | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Parlor | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Zumurudee | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Bariley | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Emmaus (IRE) | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Argentello (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Zero Gravity | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sailing Solo | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nice Not Nice | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sonneteer | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Twelfth Labour | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Boyfriend Material | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Early Mischief | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irritator | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Omega Moon | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Federal Case | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Friend Flavin | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Mardi Gras S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Hotshot Anna | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Play On | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Eyeinthesky | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bell’s the One | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Unbridled Class | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Aiken to Be | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lake Local | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | A Thousand Reasons | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Change of Control | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | On Probation | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spectralight (IRE) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Break Even | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lunar Approach | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Diamond Palace | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Amazing American | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tapit On Race Day | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Magical Candy | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stormie Court | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ready Redding | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Incased in Time | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | First Metal Count | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | One Tough Charlie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.