February 22, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Informed Consent | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sneads | 0.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Splitting Eights | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tony Small | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Seediskid | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tio Blas | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Well in Tune | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Rally Cap | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | We Should Talk | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Daddy D T | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Moneymeister | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Six | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Booby Trap | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Professor Snape | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Honey Money | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pot of Hunny | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Choose Happiness | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Leyte | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | New York Supreme | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Idaka | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Smokin Hot Kiss | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Letmetakethiscall | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bertranda | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dirty Bird | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Tayler’s the Boss | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | First Forever | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Camorra | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Preternatural | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mac’s Revolution | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | No More Miracles | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beach Front | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Letzgometz | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Septimius Severus | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Talent Scout | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | I’m Elmer J Fudd | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Running Violence | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Takeoff | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Union Wise | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jerry the Nipper | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | A Vow of Beauty | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aintitfunkynow | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Farragut | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Whichwaytomalibu | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stash My Money | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Unbridled John | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Emcee Prime | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Playwright | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Mountain | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Carthon | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Durkin’s Call | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Horoscope | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Frosted Ice | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Real Dan | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Haynesfield S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | I Love Jaxson | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Buff | 0.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Syndergaard | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honor Up | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Twisted Tom | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fleet Irish | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Just Stay Home | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mizzen the Mark | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Broadway Angel | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Desbordes | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Kheisha | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Stuy Town Baby | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Empress Luciana | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shes Euphoric | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lil Morning Star | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Playboys Pitch | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | On to Cincinnati | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.