Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Monday, February 17, 2020

February 17, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3A 3 Smart Set 1.40 1.7 3-1
1A 1 Giveitsomewellie 1.40 1.9 4-1
5 5 Ms. Malevolence 1.60 1.9 4-1
2 2 Masons Friend 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Kashmir Queen 12.00 3 6-1
6 6 Dare to Try 4.50 3.2 6-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Jennemily 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Stand for the Flag 1.20 2.2 4-1
5 5 Honor Way 2.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Matty’s Magnum 8.00 3 6-1
4 4 Avalina 6.00 3.4 6-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Awesome Party 5.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Zuzudini 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Bubba Chuck 15.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Distorted Sky 1.20 2.7 5-1
2 2 Cowtown 1.60 3.1 6-1
1 1 Replicant 15.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mental Model 4.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Digital Footprint 10.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Mister Bobby 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Tale of Mist 8.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Cause of Action 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Hardcore Folklore 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Invest 3.50 4.2 8-1
9 9 Who’s in Charge 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Seanow 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Latin Love Bug 30.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Nuclear Code 4.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Malibu Action 8.00 3 6-1
1 1 The Forty Factor 4.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Scarf It Down 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Laura’s Posse 8.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Liam Lets Go 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 So Sublime 20.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Brimstone 10.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Blueblood 5.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Make Or Break 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Lake Chicot 15.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Vibrancy 5.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Cruising Strong 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Rude Awaking 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 The New Miami 30.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Bella Invasion 50.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Wiggle and Jiggle 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Officer Hutchy 2.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Accabonac Harbor 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Trouble for Skylar 1.80 3.6 7-1
1 1 Party in the Raine 8.00 3.9 7-1
5A 5 Bustin Scones 3.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Awesome Debate 12.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Ella’s Song 15.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Queendom 12.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Wailin Josie 6.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Jacqueline D 10.00 5.6 11-1
2A 2 Bustin to Please 3.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Hollie Hughes S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Eye Luv Lulu 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Binkster 15.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Cerretalto 4.50 3.1 6-1
8 8 Arthur’s Hope 2.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Amundson 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Morning Breez 10.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 P J Advantage 20.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 My Boy Tate 3.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 13 Saratoga Pal 10.00 2 4-1
12 10 Walrus Gumboot 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Signified 8.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Devil’s Code 12.00 SCRATCH
11 9 Ernie Banker 12.00 3 6-1
3 3 Lorenzen 15.00 4.2 8-1
10 8 Threepointninenine 15.00 4.3 8-1
13 11 Dangerous Edge 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Daithi 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Krugerrand 30.00 5.4 10-1
7 6 Double Shot 6.00 5.9 11-1
14 12 More Graytful 2.00 6 11-1
6 5 Liquor 30.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 True Palace 30.00 6.5 12-1
8 7 Constant Quest 50.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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