Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 15, 2020

February 15, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Nikkis Kitten 20.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Johnnie Merle (IRE) 12.00 4.9 9-1
11 10 Dreamalildreamofu 6.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Lea’s Princess 30.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Broadway Lady 4.50 6 11-1
2 2 Sweet N Salty Kiss 3.50 6.6 13-1
4 4 Audrey’s Time 12.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Teller to Sing 8.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 Take Charge Patti 20.00 8.4 16-1
13 11 Happy Thought 12.00 9.8 19-1
3 3 Sweet Bay 12.00 10.8 20-1
9 9 Artistic Jewler 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Fine One Won 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Wild Love 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Skye Snow 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Stop Shoppin Tammy 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Money Cometh 10.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Fort Knox 4.00 3 6-1
7 6 McShady 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Elite Class 3.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Lastchanceatglory 3.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Last Battle 12.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Airstreem 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ain’t No Elmers 4.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Liam’s Tempest 4.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Nasty 3.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Readyformycloseup 6.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Chick Be Quick 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Anima Gemella 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Legal Limit 10.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Salaciousacusation 4.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 East Lex 20.00 4 8-1
13 13 Enchanted Empire 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Autumn Jett 20.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Deanos Cape 12.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Divulgence 12.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Free Spender 4.50 5.7 11-1
10 10 Spanish Kingdom 5.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Small Talk 12.00 7 13-1
6 6 Templet 5.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Decision Maker 20.00 7.5 14-1
12 12 Auburn Hills 6.00 7.7 15-1
9A 9 Declared 8.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Mischievous Mo 20.00 9 17-1
8 8 Lokoya Road 12.00 9.5 18-1
15 15 Hoffa 20.00 SCRATCH
16A 16 Dack Janiel’s 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ranaan 4.50 2.1 4-1
7A 7 Winning Impression 1.20 2.8 5-1
4 4 Disclosure 12.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Sharecropper 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Shake Some Action 5.00 3.7 7-1
3A 3 Chestertown 1.20 3.9 7-1
5 5 Drewpower 15.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Unthrottled 6.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Colonel Power S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Malpais 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Star of Kodiak 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Powell 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Chaos Theory 4.00 4.8 9-1
11 9 McFeely 20.00 4.9 9-1
10 8 Blind Ambition 4.50 5.2 10-1
1 1 Fast Boat 3.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Made You Look 8.00 6 11-1
9 7 Just Might 20.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Nicky Numbers 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Early Mischief 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Salado 6.00 2 4-1
11 11 Chrystal Sphere 4.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Quana Dude 4.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Verb 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Malahini 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Amani’s Eagle 10.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Good Clean Fun 10.00 5 9-1
2A 2 Mystic Guide 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Brother Martin 20.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Total Destruction 20.00 6.4 12-1
3A 3 Olson 6.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Albert M. Stall Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Flower Party (IRE) 30.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Elsa 15.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Irisa (ARG) 12.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Notapradaprice 8.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Aife 15.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Makealitlemischief 20.00 6.7 13-1
14 14 Quebec 6.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Stave 15.00 7.1 13-1
13 13 May Lily 20.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 Quick Witted 20.00 8.4 16-1
7 7 Don’t Tell Marge 10.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Mitchell Road 2.50 9.1 17-1
12 12 Zofelle (IRE) 3.50 9.9 19-1
4 4 She’sonthewarpath 20.00 10.3 20-1
15 15 Area 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Makeme Dream 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Mineshaft S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Cutting Humor 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Silver Dust 2.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Gun It 10.00 4 8-1
9 7 Captivating Moon 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 5 Hofburg 4.00 4.8 9-1
11 9 Pirate’s Punch 10.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Sleepy Eyes Todd 10.00 6.3 12-1
8 6 Winning Number 20.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Mocito Rojo 8.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Roiland 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Blended Citizen 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Fair Grounds S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Space Mountain 20.00 3.4 7-1
12 9 Midnight Tea Time 12.00 5.2 10-1
13 10 Spectacular Gem 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 6 Honovi 30.00 5.6 11-1
4 3 Factor This 8.00 6.1 11-1
6 5 Classic Covey 6.00 6.4 12-1
2 1 Synchrony 3.00 7 13-1
8 7 Tone Broke 20.00 7.1 13-1
3 2 Botswana 30.00 7.3 14-1
5 4 Dontblamerocket 4.50 7.7 14-1
1 1 Wound Tight 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Captivating Moon 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Sailing Solo 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 The Great Day (ARG) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Rachel Alexandra S. Presented By Fasig-tipton

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ursula 8.00 3 6-1
1 1 His Glory 10.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Swiss Skydiver 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Tempers Rising 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 British Idiom 1.60 4.1 8-1
7 7 Finite 2.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Impeccable Style 12.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Risen Star S. Presented By Lamarque Ford

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ready to Roll 20.00 4 8-1
10 10 Farmington Road 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Perfect Revenge 20.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Mr. Monomoy 6.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Scabbard 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Blackberry Wine 5.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Moon Over Miami 10.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Digital 6.00 6 11-1
8 8 Enforceable 3.50 6.2 12-1
6 6 Shashashakemeup 20.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Silver State 4.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 13 (Stakes) – Risen Star S. Presented By Lamarque Ford

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Ny Traffic 10.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Modernist 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Excession 20.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Mr. Big News 20.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Finnick the Fierce 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Major Fed 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Anneau d’Or 1.80 6 11-1
11 11 Mailman Money 8.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Liam’s Lucky Charm 4.50 6.3 12-1
9 9 Lynn’s Map 10.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Fame to Famous 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Truculent 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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