Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 1, 2020

February 1, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Hot Melissa 2.50 5.5 10-1
1 1 Custom for Carlita 4.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Kehron’s Creed 3.50 5.9 11-1
4 4 Supersport Sally 6.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Lady Date 4.50 6.7 13-1
2 2 Paper Doll 4.50 7 13-1
6 6 Easter Girl 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Al Taweel 4.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Fist of Rage 3.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Half Trick 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Lemon Blitz 4.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Eastside Boy 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Dickinson’s Image 4.50 5.9 11-1
3 3 Square the Circle 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Wings of Fury 2.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Bella Belle 3.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Scary Animal 3.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Blunt Force 2.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Sweet Blindness 5.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Summer Express 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Miss Sooner Girl 6.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lafitte’s Fleet 3.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Rancho Bargo 4.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Demi Patrick 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Fray 4.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Crealock 3.50 5.3 10-1
1 1 Data Load 4.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Awe Patriot 20.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Randy P. Romero Memorial Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Kunal 5.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Hieronymus 2.50 3 6-1
7 7 The Gray Blur 6.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Duke of Carthania 3.50 4 8-1
6 5 Richard Ronald 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Perfect Star 4.50 4.8 9-1
3 2 Jack the Umpire 5.00 5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Martial Eagle 12.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Cornstarch 5.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 I Will Stand 3.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Dr. Hipp 3.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Tensas Talk 5.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Easy Shot 2.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Kick N Kiss 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Aly’s Charm 15.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Foreign Connection 5.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Run By 6.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Steal the Stars 4.50 5.5 10-1
9 9 Gifted Talent 3.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Playin N Traffic 3.50 6.8 13-1
1 1 The Missing Piece 15.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Overly Sweet 20.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 On Your Mark 4.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Spin Rate 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Keen Samurai 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Steely Danza 3.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Fairway Magic 3.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Verb 3.50 5 10-1
7 7 Mischief’s Machine 15.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Carpe Victoriam 3.00 4.4 8-1
9 10 Banks Island 2.50 SCRATCH
4 3 The Gray Blur 4.00 5 9-1
8 9 Long Weekend 3.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Souper Dormy 3.50 5.3 10-1
1A 7 Money Biz 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 1 Decorated 5.00 5.6 11-1
1 5 Beau Oxy 6.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Nomo d’Oro 6.00 6 11-1
6 5 Carpe Noctem 6.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Doug’s Bug 8.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Saint William 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Harbor Knight 3.50 3.8 7-1
6 5 May Hour 3.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Kiss of the Wolf 12.00 4.2 8-1
4 3 Rhett n’ Scarlett 12.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Cape Rosso 5.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Halfourretirement 5.00 5.1 10-1
8 7 Yes My Son 20.00 5.8 11-1
10 8 Fix D Fence 20.00 6.2 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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