January 18, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Tipazo | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Judiths Cougar | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fortune Found | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Combat Ribbon | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Skipin On Orchard | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Number One Dillon | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | John Want Revenge | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Concrete Jungle | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Invest | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Yankee Division | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jack Bo | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Paynter’s Prize | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | True Blue Giant | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Quintarelli | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smidge | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Quixotic | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Phil | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Warfront Fighter | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Kohen | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Twelth Man | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Betts | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Replicant | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Tour de Force | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Daddy D T | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mills | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Eden Ridge | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Calculated Risker | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Chief Know It All | 1.20 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Neighborhood Bully | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Peter’s Project | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Seven Is Heaven | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Morgantown | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bustin Hoffman | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bustin Shout | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tizgame | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Leap to Glory | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Coolboy | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Imaginar | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kadens Courage | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Possetizzly | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Seed Money | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Ventus | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Saratoga Giro | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mo Diddley | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | We Should Talk | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Five Star Bunt | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Belt | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Manifest Destiny | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | What a Catch | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Psychic Energy | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Franklin Square S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Big Q | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fierce Lady | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Playtone | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | A Freud of Mama | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Myawaya | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Violent Point | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Firenze Freedom | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ancient Brown | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Toboggan S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Mind Control | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | American Anthem | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arch Cat | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sunny Ridge | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nicodemus | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Still Having Fun | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | T Loves a Fight | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bon Raison | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | The Sicarii | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Honorable Avenue | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Titan’s Will | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Our Troubadour | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lucky E | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Carters Got Sass | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Now and Again | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Varangian | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Geils Rocks | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lastlookatthecat | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oneshotatforever | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Oliver Witha Twist | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Liams Majesty | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.