December 14, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Cavaradossi | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mine the Coin | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Tony Small | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Informed Consent | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | State of Mine | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Afleet Mickey | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Bridgetothefuture | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8A | 8 | Tio Blas | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | El Fenomeno | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Compensate | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Persian Queen | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cruise and Danze | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wedontbelieveher | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Customerexperience | 1.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wicked Amber | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Business Cycle | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Love That Jazz | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brimstone | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Winning Withhonour | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | What a Catch | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Malibu Action | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ekati Wildcat | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Moneymeister | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nuclear Code | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Irish Valor | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Danny California | 1.60 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Mountain | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rockin Jo | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ten Twenty Nine | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Floyd Unger | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Brush Country | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Freudian Sip | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Rally Cap | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Desert Lights | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Skywriting | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fleet Warrior | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dooley | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | All Clear | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sounds Good | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Outstanding Debt | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blue Skies Forever | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Kumar | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hizaam | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Scoreswhenhewants | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Traveling | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Super Silver | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jerome Avenue | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Honest Toun | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bye Bye Man | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beach Access | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Ready to Escape | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Shamrocked | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | American Rule | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wicked Trick | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sicilia Mike | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cerretalto | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Somes Sound | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Bank On Shea | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Captain Bombastic | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Dream Bigger | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Big Package | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Moonachie | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Turbo Drive | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Chowda | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hold My Call | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Giant Shoes | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kierkegaard | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Tercero | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Colormepazzi | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brunate | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | It’s a Risk | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Shandian | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Unrelenting Force | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Titan’s Will | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Victory Built | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Our Troubadour | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Microscope | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Saratoga Pal | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oconee | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kilmarknock | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Varangian | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Glenn Likes Gin | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Concrete Jungle | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Our Papa G | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Odin’s Honor | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.