December 1, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Arrowsphere | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Northern Connect | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Star Hunter | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sugar Cube | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Critter | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gemini Journey | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Traumarama | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fortressa | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8A | 8 | Cook Memories | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Davidic Line | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | It’s Mandatory | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Corkman | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Game Set and Match | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Obiwan | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Awesome Ekati | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jingle | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Niall | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Deanos Cape | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Martial Eagle | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Young Phillip | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Majors Vindication | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Baringer Spring | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Musical Man | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alex of Ice | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Trashtalkinyankee | 1.80 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Revenio | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Jay Vee Bee | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Baquero Flies | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Try Try Again | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Florida Flash | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Nashvegas | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flugel Binder | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Strength | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Limbo’s Promise | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rocky John | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mr. Kidd | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Max Pandowdy | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Consider | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Go Go Girolamo | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Jay Jay Creed | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | English Escort | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Obstinate | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hashtag Winner | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Quiet Dawn | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Dixieland Traffic | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | West Coast Temple | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Brightsideoflife | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stargazer Lily | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dream On Gorgeous | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Polished Copper | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Curate | 1.60 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Do Share | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Seven Trumpets | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Operation Stevie | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Reason to Soar | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Racer | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Little Menace | 1.40 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shanghai’s Dream | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kickin’ Kirby | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Speightstown Again | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Biz | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Knox | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Son of Ga Ga | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Datza Five Oh | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Willfred | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full Authority | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trust Me Now | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Perfectly Majestic | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Conquest Windycity | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sharp Art | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hardly a Secret | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Driven by History | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Earnednevergiven | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Curlins Vow | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | No Funny Biz | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Adulator | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Shakes Creek | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ransack | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Alex Joon | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Decision Maker | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | In Sky We Trust | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Liberty Blue | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Shirt No Shoes | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Descent | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Untap | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | No Bad Days | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz the Journey | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Speaking the Truth | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shared Sense | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mine My Time | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ready and Rich | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Equal Justice | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Raphael | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Firery Tale | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miracle Hill | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eastside Boy | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Goose Drank Wine | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maya Solomea | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Out Cold | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | U R Not So Bad | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Off the Record | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Croatian | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chess Chief | 1.40 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fra Mauro | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ucanthankmelater | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Not Very Gentle | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Icon | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jefe | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Honoring Major | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Lucky Dime | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jilted Bride | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Speighty Shirl | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Catechism | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Fancified | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dynamite Gift | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lipstikliesnlovers | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | All in Harmony | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kiss Mo | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Double That | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Adhwaa | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Carpe Amorina | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | A J Rock | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Shining Colors | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Kertara | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Senora Roma | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.